Business Cycles in South-East Europe from Independence to the end of the Cold War

Matthias Morys and Martin Ivanov

Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers from CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: Based on a freshly built data set and relying on a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model, this paper constructs business cycle indices for five South-East European (SEE) countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia) to address two questions: to what extent has there been a common SEE business cycle, and has there been synchronisation of business cycles with England, France and Germany? We find limited but increasing business cycle integration before World War I, both within SEE and vis-Ã -vis the core economies. The trend towards increasing levels of business cycle synchronisation accelerates in the interwar period and is not even interrupted by the arrival of the Great Depression. The onset of the Cold War almost completely extinguishes regional business cycle integration, but the reorientation of some communist countries towards the West (early on by Yugoslavia, from the mid-1970s also by Romania) also sees the re-emergence of a common business cycle vis-Ã -vis Austria and Germany. JEL classification:

Keywords: South-East European business cycle; national historical accounts; common dynamic factor analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 E32 N13 N14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-tra
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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