An OLG model of global imbalances

Sara Eugeni

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the relationship between East Asian countries' high propensity to save and global imbalances in a two-country OLG model with production. The absence of pay-as-you-go pension systems can rationalize the saving behavior of emerging economies and capital outflows to the United States. The model predicts that the country with no pay-as-you-go system can run a trade surplus only as long as the long-run growth rate of the economy is higher than the real interest rate (capital overaccumulation case). The low real interest rates in the US is evidence in favor of the hypothesis that there is a "global saving glut" in the world economy. The model can also explain why the US current account deteriorated gradually and only in the late 1990s, although the net foreign asset position had already turned negative in the early 1980s. Finally, this analysis implies that the introduction of a pay-as-you-go system in China would have the effect of reducing the imbalances.

Keywords: global imbalances; capital flows; current account dynamics; OLG model; pay-as-you-go-system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F21 F33 F34 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dge, nep-opm and nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: An OLG model of global imbalances (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:yor:yorken:13/05

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