Inequality, macroeconomic performance and political polarization: An empirical analysis

Christian Proaño, Juan Carlos Peña and Thomas Saalfeld

No 149, BERG Working Paper Series from Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group

Abstract: This paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of voting behavior, and especially of political polarization, for 20 advanced countries using annual data ranging from 1970 to 2016 and covering 291 parliamentary elections. Using a panel estimation approach and rolling regressions we find empirical evidence supporting that a) traditionally established mainstream parties (center-left, center, and center-right) are penalized for poor economic performance; b) far-left (populist and radical parties) parties benefit from increasing unemployment rates; c) greater income inequality has increased the electoral support for far-right parties, particularly in recent times. Further, we do not find empirical support for the notion that social and economic globalization has led to an increase of popularity of far-right parties. These results have wide reaching implications for the current political situation in the Western world.

Keywords: Income Inequality; Political Polarization; Globalization; Economic Voting Behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E12 E24 E32 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-mac and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bamber:149

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