The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy

Christina Gerberding

No 2001,09, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts conducted by the London-based institute Consensus Economics. The estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short to medium-run development of consumer prices in Germany, France and Italy. Furthermore, the analysis of the process of expectations formation indicates that the expectations of the households and experts surveyed are strongly guided by earlier forecasts and past price developments. The resultant "stickiness" of the inflation process heightens the need for monetary policy makers to adopt a forwardlooking approach.

Keywords: inflation expectations; survey data; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19547/1/200109dkp_en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4155

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies from Deutsche Bundesbank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().