How to treat benchmark revisions? The case of German production and orders statistics

Thomas Knetsch and Hans-Eggert Reimers

No 2006,38, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: Elements of an econometric examination of benchmark revisions in real-time data are suggested. Structural break tests may be applied to detect heterogeneities within vintages. Systems cointegration tests are helpful to reveal inconsistencies across vintages. Differencing and rebasing, often used to adjust for benchmark revisions, are generally not sufficient to ensure consistent real-time macroeconomic data. Vintage transformation functions estimated by cointegrating regressions are more flexible. Inappropriate conversion may cause observed revision statistics to be affected by nuisance parameters. In German industrial production and orders statistics, remaining revisions are generally biased and serially correlated.

Keywords: real-time data; benchmark revisions; industrial production; orders (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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