Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads

Dragon Yongjun Tang and Hong Yan

No 2008,08, Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: This study empirically examine the impact of market conditions on credit spreads as motivated by recently developed structural credit risk models. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that, in the time series, average credit spreads are decreasing in GDP growth rate, but increasing in GDP growth volatility. We document that credit spreads are lower when investor sentiment is high and when the systematic jump risk is low. In the cross section, we confirm that firm-level cash flow volatility raises credit spreads. More importantly, we demonstrate that the impact of market conditions on credit spreads is substantially affected by firm heterogeneity. During economic expansions, ceteris paribus, firms with high cash flow betas have lower credit spreads than those with low cash flow betas. This relation disappears during economic recessions, consistent with theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Credit Risk; Credit Default Swaps; Credit Spreads; Market Conditions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E44 G12 G13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-mac and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7318

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