Anticipated and unanticipated oil price shocks and optimal monetary policy

Hans-Werner Wohltmann and Roland Winkler ()

No 2008-05, Economics Working Papers from Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper studies the welfare effects of severalmonetary policy rules in the presence of anticipated and unanticipated oil price shocks. Our analysis is based on a stylized New Keynesian model of a small open economy. Our main findings are the following: i) Standard interest rate rules amplify the welfare loss compared to neutral monetary policies. ii) The optimal policy under commitment, by contrast, dampens the welfare loss. iii) Optimized simple rules can replicate the outcome under the optimal unrestricted rule if they are history-dependent, contain the exchange rate and, in the anticipated case, forward-looking elements. iv) Anticipated oil shocks lead to a higher welfare loss than unanticipated shocks.

Keywords: Anticipated Shocks; Oil Price Shocks; Open Economy; Optimal Monetary Policy; Simple Policy Rules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E52 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:cauewp:7112

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