Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information

Alexander Kempf, Olaf Korn and Sven Saßning

No 11-10 [rev.], CFR Working Papers from University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR)

Abstract: We develop a new family of estimators of the covariance matrix that relies solely on forwardlooking information. It uses only current prices of plain-vanilla options. In an out-of-sample study we show that a minimum-variance strategy based on these fully-implied estimators outperforms several benchmark strategies, including various strategies based on historical estimates, index investing, and 1/N investing. The outperformance originates in crisis periods when information ow and information asymmetry are high. Although the historical benchmark strategies improve when more recent data is used, they never outperform fully-implied strategies. Thus, our results suggest that investors are better off relying on forward-looking information.

Keywords: portfolio selection; option-implied information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G13 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/92383/1/777249685.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1110r

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CFR Working Papers from University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().