Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note

Carsten Croonenbroeck and Georg Stadtmann

No 329, Discussion Papers from European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics

Abstract: We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.

Keywords: Phillips Curve; Forecasting; Europe; RMSE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:329

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