GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

André Kühn, Patrick Novinsky and Wolfgang Schade

No S13/2014, Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" from Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

Abstract: The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the most important markets (USA, Japan, EU, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). According to the changes in framework conditions within these countries, worldwide car sales will nearly double up to 2030 (120 Mio. cars a year), with the most dynamic development in the Chinese market. The simulation results also show that - depending on the chosen scenario - a 40 %- share of alternative drive technologies within the worldwide car sales in 2030 seems to be possible.

Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cmp, nep-ger and nep-tre
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s132014

DOI: 10.24406/publica-fhg-296972

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