A system dynamics approach for modelling a lead-market-based export potential

Rainer Walz, Nicki Helfrich and Alexander Enzmann

No S3/2009, Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" from Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

Abstract: For knowledge-intensive goods, foreign trade performance also depends on the quality of the technology. Important factors to consider are technological capa-bilities, various market factors which influence the chances of a country devel-oping a lead-market position, innovation-friendly regulation and the existence of internationally competitive complementary industry clusters. In order to model these aspects, various feedback mechanisms between these factors have to be taken into account, among them knowledge spillovers from the export success which lead to an erosion of a lead-market position over time. A system dynam-ics framework is used for a first implementation of a simulation model for wind energy technology exports from Germany. The empirical results show the ex-pected dynamics of the system and underline the importance of the various feedback loops.

Keywords: Renewable energy technologies; exports; first-mover advantage; lead markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-knm
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s32009

DOI: 10.24406/publica-fhg-294593

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