Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in time-frequency domain

Jozef Baruník, Tomas Krehlik and Lukas Vacha

No 55, FinMaP-Working Papers from Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents

Abstract: This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the influence of different timescales on volatility forecasts. The decomposition of volatility into several timescales approximates the behaviour of traders at corresponding investment horizons. The proposed methodology is moreover able to account for impact of jumps due to a recently proposed jump wavelet two scale realized volatility estimator. We propose a realized Jump-GARCH models estimated in two versions using maximum likelihood as well as observation-driven estimation framework of generalized autoregressive score. We compare forecasts using several popular realized volatility measures on foreign exchange rate futures data covering the recent financial crisis. Our results indicate that disentangling jump variation from the integrated variation is important for forecasting performance. An interesting insight into the volatility process is also provided by its multiscale decomposition. We find that most of the information for future volatility comes from high frequency part of the spectra representing very short investment horizons. Our newly proposed models outperform statistically the popular as well conventional models in both one-day and multi-period-ahead forecasting.

Keywords: realized GARCH; wavelet decomposition; jumps; multi-period-ahead volatility forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mst and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in time-frequency domain (2016)
Working Paper: Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in time-frequency domain (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:55

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