Consequences of War: Japan's Demographic Transition and the Marriage Market

Kota Ogasawara and Mizuki Komura

No 750, GLO Discussion Paper Series from Global Labor Organization (GLO)

Abstract: This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio, and their impact on intra-household bargaining, on both the quantity and the quality of children. We first present the theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of con icting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male to female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children, but a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio, as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male to female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a lower decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970, in the absence of the decrease in the sex ratio.

Keywords: quantity-quality trade-off of children; bargaining power; marriage mar- ket; sex ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J12 J13 J16 N15 N35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market (2022)
Working Paper: Consequences of War: Japan's Demographic Transition and the Marriage Market (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:glodps:750

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