Correlation Under Stress In Normal Variance Mixture Models

Michael Kalkbrener and Natalie Packham

No 2018-035, IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series"

Abstract: We investigate correlations of asset returns in stress scenarios where a common risk factor is truncated. Our analysis is performed in the class of normal variance mixture (NVM) models, which encompasses many distributions commonly used in nancial modelling. For the special cases of jointly normally and t-distributed asset returns we derive closed formulas for the correlation under stress. For the NVM distribution, we calculate the asymptotic limit of the correlation under stress, which depends on whether the variables are in the maximum domain of attraction of the Frechet or Gumbel distribution. It turns out that correlations in heavy-tailed NVM models are less sensitive to stress than in medium- or light-tailed models. Our analysis sheds light on the suitability of this model class to serve as a quantitative framework for stress testing, and as such provides valuable information for risk and capital management in nancial institutions, where NVM models are frequently used for assessing capital adequacy. We also demonstrate how our results can be applied for more prudent stress testing.

Keywords: Stress testing; risk management; correlation; normal variance mixture distribution; multivariate normal distribution; multivariate t-distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230746/1/irtg1792dp2018-035.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2018035

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series" Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().