Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited

Annika Backes and Steffen Müller
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Steffen Mueller

No 8/2024, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

Keywords: globalization; import shocks; populism; voting behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F6 J2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-his, nep-int, nep-pol and nep-ure
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Journal Article: Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:287751

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