Potential international employment effects of a hard Brexit

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch and Oliver Holtemöller

No 4/2019, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from the European Union (EU) to the UK will decline by 25% after a hard Brexit. The absolute effects are largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK like Germany and France. However, there are also large countries outside the EU which are heavily affected via global value chains like China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) are largest in Malta and Ireland. UK employment will also be affected via intermediate input production. Within Germany, the motor vehicle industry and in particular the 'Autostadt' Wolfsburg are most affected.

Keywords: Brexit; employment; European Union; international trade; tariffs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C67 D57 F16 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-geo and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:42019

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