Weather and crime in South Africa

Anna Bruederle, Jörg Peters and Gareth Roberts

No 739, Ruhr Economic Papers from RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen

Abstract: South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world, incurring high cost for society. The present paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at monthly resolution on the police ward level, we demonstrate a short-term effect of warmer temperatures on violent crime and thereby offer support for the heat-aggression link as suggested by psychological research. Furthermore, we find evidence for a mid-term effect of weather on crime via agricultural income, which is in line with the economic theory of crime. Our findings have direct policy implications for the design of crime prevention strategies, in which weather forecasts could play an important role.

Keywords: South Africa; weather; crime; income shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 O55 Q54 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-agr, nep-env, nep-law and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:rwirep:739

DOI: 10.4419/86788859

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