Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information

Jan Prüser and Boris Blagov

No 960, Ruhr Economic Papers from RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen

Abstract: We propose a prior for VAR models that exploits the panel structure of macroeconomic time series while also providing shrinkage towards zero to address overfitting concerns. The prior is flexible as it detects shared dynamics of individual variables across endogenously determined groups of countries. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach via a Monte Carlo study and use our model to capture the hidden homo- and heterogeneities of the euro area member states. Combining pairwise pooling with zero shrinkage delivers sharper parameter inference that improves point and density forecasts over only zero shrinkage or only pooling specifications, and helps with structural analysis by lowering the estimation uncertainty.

Keywords: BVAR; shrinkage; forecasting; structural analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-eec, nep-ets and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:rwirep:960

DOI: 10.4419/96973124

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