On the macroeconomic effects of immigration: A VAR analysis for the US

Sebastian Weiske

No 02/2019, Working Papers from German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung

Abstract: This paper estimates the quarterly flow of migrants to the US working age population using data based on the Current Population Survey (CPS). The dynamic responses to immigration shocks are estimated in a vector autoregression. Immigration shocks, as well as technology shocks are identified through long-run restrictions. The responses to immigration shocks are consistent with standard growth theory. Investment increases, while real wages fall in the short run. Overall, immigration has been of little importance for US business cycles, while investment-specific technology shocks have been a major driver of immigration during the 1990s and 2000s.

Keywords: immigration; business cycles; vector autoregressions; long-run restrictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F22 J11 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab, nep-mac and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:022019

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