Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Katja Drechsel, Sebastian Giesen and Axel Lindner
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Katja Heinisch

VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we nd that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can signi cantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

JEL-codes: C52 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Working Paper: Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100393

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