Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?

Robert Lehmann

VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators outperform the benchmark model as well as the indicators from hard data for most of our 20 European states and the aggregates EA-18 and EU-28. The most accurate forecasts are on average produced by the confidence indicator in the manufacturing sector, the economic sentiment indicator and the production expectations. However, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained with country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens the accuracy of soft indicators. The accuracy of soft indicators improves if countries have a larger share in exports of machinery goods. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast accuracy.

JEL-codes: F01 F10 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators? (2021)
Working Paper: Forecasting Exports across Europe: What Are the Superior Survey Indicators? (2019)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112847

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