Modernization and Islamist Conflict

Daniel Meierrieks and Tim Krieger

VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: This contribution studies the impact of modernization on the onset of Islamist conflict. To capture the multi-dimensional phenomenon of modernization, we create a unique modernization index. Our empirical analysis for 154 countries for the 1971-2006 period provides robust evidence that modernization rather than economic underdevelopment or a lack of democracy increases the likelihood of the onset of Islamist conflict. This relationship especially matters to Islamist groups that aim at a regime change, i.e., the establishment of an Islamic state, while separatist groups seem to be more strongly affected by minority discrimination. We argue that from a rational-economic point of view the adverse effects of modernization lower the opportunity costs of conflict and raise its benefits. Additionally, an Islamist framing of modernization grievances affects the cost-benefit considerations of potential Islamist militants in ways that make violence even more likely (e.g., by offering spiritual rewards). An Islamist interpretation of modernization grievances furthermore provides Islamist militants with a political objective (the establishment of an Islamic state) to remedy the perceived ills of modernization.

JEL-codes: D74 O10 Z12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113142

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