A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP

Katja Heinisch

VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: In this paper we reexamine the relative role of soft and hard data in terms of short-term GDP forecasting. We employ mixed frequency models (MF-VARS) and real-time data to investigate the relative role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Special emphasis is given to the real-time data flow of surveys, production and orders. Although we find evidence that the forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ, we see only little impact on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when it comes to optimally combine soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the relative role of survey information.

JEL-codes: C32 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145864

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