Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Alexander Glas and Matthias Hartmann

VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.

JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (2016)
Working Paper: Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145888

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