Simulating world trade in the decades ahead: Driving forces and policy implications

Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré and Alexander Keck

No ERSD-2014-05, WTO Staff Working Papers from World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division

Abstract: Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: The emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South-South trade and diversification into skill-intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalization may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega-regionals could slow down, but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: For some countries, up-skilling will be crucial, for others labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced.

Keywords: international trade; macroeconomic projections; CGE simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 F02 F17 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-ias, nep-int and nep-mac
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/104751/1/782835716.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications (2017)
Working Paper: Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications (2017)
Working Paper: Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications (2017)
Working Paper: Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications (2017)
Working Paper: SIMULATING WORLD TRADE IN THE DECADES AHEAD: DRIVING FORCES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS (2014)
Working Paper: SIMULATING WORLD TRADE IN THE DECADES AHEAD: DRIVING FORCES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201405

DOI: 10.30875/3bacb605-en

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