Betting on Own Knowledge: Experimental Test of Overconfidence

Pavlo R. Blavatskyy

No 358, IEW - Working Papers from Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich

Abstract: This paper presents a new incentive compatible method for measuring confidence in own knowledge. This method consists of two parts. First, an individual answers several general knowledge questions. Second, the individual chooses among three alternatives: 1) one question is selected at random and the individual receives a payoff if he or she has answered this question correctly; 2) the individual receives the same payoff with a probability equal to the percentage of correctly answered questions; 3) either the first or the second alternative is selected. The choice of the first (second) alternative reveals overconfidence (underconfidence). The individual is well calibrated if he or she chooses the third alternative. Experimental results show that subjects, on average, exhibit underconfidence about their own knowledge when the incentive compatible mechanism is used. Their confidence in own knowledge does not depend on their attitude towards risk/ambiguity.

Keywords: Overconfidence; underconfidence; lottery; experiment; risk aversion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-exp, nep-knm and nep-upt
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zur:iewwpx:358

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