Forecasting Sharp Changes

Roy Batchelor ()

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2009, issue 13, pages 7-12

Abstract: Batchelor concludes we have learned yet again just how bad we are at forecasting sharp and hard-to-reverse changes in economic conditions. The linear models that perform well most of the time aren’t cut out for this job. Waiting in the wings are some nonlinear models – of regime switches, catastrophes, and critical network events – that explain how normally stable, complex systems can become unstable, and that might actually provide us with dependable early warnings of bubbles and crashes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Date: 2009
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