Details about Natsuki Arai

Access statistics for papers by Natsuki Arai.

Last updated 2025-07-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: par452

Working Papers

2025

1. Dispersion of FOMC Policymakers: Evidence from Individual Economic Projections with Identities
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
2. Nightless City: Impacts of Politicians' Questions on Overtime Work of Bureaucrats
   Working Papers, Tokyo Center for Economic Research

2023

3. Nightless City: Impacts of Policymakers' Questions on Overtime Work of Government Officials
   ISER Discussion Paper, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka
   Also in Working Papers, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics (2023)

2022

4. The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections
   Discussion paper series, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University

2021

5. Does Working with a Future Executive Make Junior Employees More Likely to Be Promoted ?
   Discussion Papers, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University
6. Introductory Economics: Gender, Majors, and Future Performance
   Papers, arXiv.org

2020

7. The FOMC’s New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   See also Journal Article The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2023) (2023)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Long‐run peer effects and promotion: Evidence from 70‐plus years of career records in Japan
   Economic Inquiry, 2025, 63, (3), 740-758
2. US Credit Spillovers to Small Open Economies: A Proxy-VAR Approach
   Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 2025, 66, (1), 46-60

2024

3. The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections
   Economics Letters, 2024, 244, (C)

2023

4. The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories
   Journal of Banking & Finance, 2023, 151, (C)
   See also Working Paper The FOMC’s New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories, Working Papers (2020) (2020)

2020

5. Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (4), 1290-1300

2017

6. The Effects of Monetary Policy Accouncements at the Zero Lower Bound
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2017, 13, (2), 159-196 View citations (26)

2016

7. Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, 48, (5), 1019-1049 View citations (10)

2014

8. Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (1), 12-19 View citations (12)