The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections

Natsuki Arai, Nobuo Iizuka and Yohei Yamamoto

Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 244, issue C

Abstract: This paper evaluates the efficiency of the Japanese fiscal authority’s revenue projections using real-time data from 1960 to 2022. While their one-year-ahead projections are not efficient, their accuracy can be significantly improved by adjusting the forecasts based on the results.

Keywords: Revenue projections; Japan; Forecast evaluation; Real-time data; Out-of-sample forecast accuracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E62 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524005196

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112035

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