Details about Ales Bulir

Homepage:	https://ales-bulir.wbs.cz/
Phone:	202.683.0115
Postal address:	700 19th Street, NW Washington, DC 20431 USA
Workplace:	International Monetary Fund (IMF), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Ales Bulir.

Last updated 2025-05-15. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pbu27

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Jump to Journal Articles Books Edited books

Working Papers

2025

1. Europe’s Debt (Un)Sustainability: Looking Through Bohn’s Magnifying Glass
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund

2024

2. The Mirage of Falling R-stars
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund
   Also in Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department (2024)

2021

3. A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (1)
4. The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund
   Also in Document de travail, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche (2021)
5. Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19: An Application to Colombia and Cambodia
   IMF Technical Notes and Manuals, International Monetary Fund

2020

6. A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (2)
7. Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund
   Also in Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department (2019)
   See also Journal Article Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve, Open Economies Review, Springer (2023) (2023)

2018

8. An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (17)
9. Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls
   IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (8)

2016

10. Monetary Transmission: Are Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries Different?
    Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2015) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?, Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier (2021) View citations (1) (2021)

2014

11. Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (9)
12. Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department (2013) View citations (1)

2012

13. Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (12)

2011

14. Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?
    Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (4)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2010) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences (2012) View citations (3) (2012)
15. The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (2)

2009

16. Sustainable real exchange rates in the new EU Member States: Is FDI a mixed blessing?
    European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission View citations (1)

2008

17. Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (8)
18. Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability
    Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences (2011) View citations (8) (2011)
19. Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences (2007) View citations (1) (2007)
20. Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (7)
21. Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Writing Clearly: The ECB 's Monetary Policy Communication, German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik (2013) View citations (1) (2013)

2007

22. Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?
    Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (6)

2006

23. The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: "Saints" and "Sinners"
    Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (3)
24. The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: How Unpleasant Is Purgatory?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article The Maastricht inflation criterion: How unpleasant is purgatory?, Economic Systems, Elsevier (2006) View citations (15) (2006)
25. Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?, World Development, Elsevier (2008) View citations (134) (2008)
26. What Explains Private Saving in Mexico?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (9)

2005

27. Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (18)
    Also in Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department (2004) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?, Economic Systems, Elsevier (2005) View citations (17) (2005)
28. The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (123) (2009)

2004

29. External and Fiscal Sustainability of the Czech Economy: A Quick Look Through the IMF's Night-Vision Goggles
    Research and Policy Notes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (2)
30. Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence From Four Transition Countries
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences (2005) View citations (1) (2005)
31. Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers IES, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies (2004) View citations (1)

2003

32. Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (14)
33. Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others: Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries
    Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (4)

2002

34. Aid and Fiscal Management
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (26)
35. Growth Slowdown Under Central Planning: A Model of Poor Incentives
    William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan

2001

36. Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems: An Issue Revisited
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (5)
37. How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (49)
    Also in WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) (2001) View citations (57)
38. The Gender Gap in Education in Eritrea in 1991-1998: A Missed Opportunity?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (1)

2000

39. Managing Financial Crises: The Experience in East Asia
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (50)
    See also Journal Article Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier (2000) View citations (47) (2000)

1998

40. Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?, IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan (2001) View citations (51) (2001)
41. The Price Incentive to Smuggle and the Cocoa Supply in Ghana, 1950-96
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (5)

1996

42. Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia Under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing it?
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund
    See also Journal Article Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing It?, Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier (1998) View citations (3) (1998)

1995

43. Inflation and Income Distribution: Further Evidenceon Empirical Links
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (38)

Journal Articles

2023

1. Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve
   Open Economies Review, 2023, 34, (1), 93-112
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve, IMF Working Papers (2020) (2020)

2021

2. Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?
   Journal of Policy Modeling, 2021, 43, (1), 95-108 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Transmission: Are Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries Different?, Working Papers (2016) (2016)

2018

3. Does the Clarity of Monetary Policy Reports Reduce Volatility in Financial Markets?
   Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2018, 68, (1), 2-17

2016

4. What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors?
   Open Economies Review, 2016, 27, (4), 795-810

2013

5. What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?
   Open Economies Review, 2013, 24, (1), 125-145 View citations (33)
6. Writing Clearly: The ECB 's Monetary Policy Communication
   German Economic Review, 2013, 14, (1), 50-72 View citations (1)
   Also in German Economic Review, 2013, 14, (1), 50-72 (2013)
   See also Working Paper Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication, IMF Working Papers (2008) View citations (2) (2008)

2012

7. Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?
   Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2012, 62, (3), 226-251 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?, Working Papers (2011) View citations (4) (2011)

2011

8. Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability
   Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2011, 61, (6), 545-565 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability, Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)

2009

9. Emerging Market Countries Don’t Believe in Fiscal Stimuli: Should We Blame Ricardo?
   Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2009, 59, (2), 153-164
10. Inflation convergence in the euro area: just another gimmick?
    Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2009, 1, (4), 355-369
11. The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability
    Journal of Development Economics, 2009, 88, (1), 87-102 View citations (123)
    See also Working Paper The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability, IMF Working Papers (2005) View citations (28) (2005)

2008

12. Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting (Introduction)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2008, 58, (09-10), 398-405
13. Introduction: The Volatility of Overseas Aid
    World Development, 2008, 36, (10), 2045-2047 View citations (3)
14. Sustainable Exchange Rates When Trade Winds Are Plentiful
    National Institute Economic Review, 2008, 204, 98-107
15. Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?
    World Development, 2008, 36, (10), 2048-2066 View citations (134)
    See also Working Paper Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?, IMF Working Papers (2006) View citations (33) (2006)
16. Why has inflation in the European Union stopped converging?
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2008, 30, (2), 341-347 View citations (4)

2007

17. Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2007, 57, (11-12), 540-557 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB, IMF Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)

2006

18. The Maastricht inflation criterion: How unpleasant is purgatory?
    Economic Systems, 2006, 30, (4), 385-404 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: How Unpleasant Is Purgatory?, IMF Working Papers (2006) View citations (15) (2006)

2005

19. Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?
    Economic Systems, 2005, 29, (2), 163-186 View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?, IMF Working Papers (2005) View citations (18) (2005)
20. Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2005, 55, (5-6), 206-231 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence From Four Transition Countries, IMF Working Papers (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
21. Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us
    Prague Economic Papers, 2005, 2005, (4), 291-316 View citations (5)

2004

22. Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences (A. R. Ghosh ? A.-M. Gulde ? H. C. Wolf)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2004, 54, (5-6), 267-269
23. Is Fiscal Adjustment More Durable When The IMF is Involved?1
    Comparative Economic Studies, 2004, 46, (3), 373-399 View citations (7)
24. Nothing Is Sacred: Economic Ideas for the New Millenium (R. J. Barro)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2004, 54, (1-2), 72-74

2003

25. Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment
    IMF Staff Papers, 2003, 50, (1), 4 View citations (167)
26. Output performance under central planning: a model of poor incentives
    Economic Systems, 2003, 27, (1), 27-39 View citations (1)
27. The Frontiers of New Institutional Economics (Eds.: John N. Drobak and John V. C. Nye) (in English)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2003, 53, (3-4), 169-171

2002

28. Can Price Incentive to Smuggle Explain the Contraction of the Cocoa Supply in Ghana?
    Journal of African Economies, 2002, 11, (3), 413-439 View citations (1)

2001

29. Economics of Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships (M. Olson)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2001, 51, (7), 433-436
30. Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?
    IMF Staff Papers, 2001, 48, (1), 5 View citations (51)
    See also Working Paper Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?, IMF Working Papers (1998) View citations (59) (1998)
31. The impact of macroeconomic policies on the distribution of income[A prelimin]
    Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 2001, 72, (2), 253-270

2000

32. Inflation and Income Distribution
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2000, 50, (4), 207-223 View citations (1)
33. Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2000, 53, (1), 1-67 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper Managing Financial Crises: The Experience in East Asia, IMF Working Papers (2000) View citations (50) (2000)

1998

34. Budoucnost penzijního systému v ÈR (The Future of the Pension System in the Czech Republic)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1998, 48, (1), 1-6
35. Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing It?
    Journal of Comparative Economics, 1998, 26, (2), 226-245 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia Under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing it?, IMF Working Papers (1996) (1996)

1997

36. Makroekonomické efekty platební neschopnosti: dynamický model
    (Macroeconomic Effects of Insolvency: Dynamic Model)
    Politická ekonomie, 1997, 1997, (2), 225-238

1996

37. Exogenita nabídky penìz: nìkteré pochybnosti o pøedchozím výzkumu (Exogenity of Monea Supply: Some Doubts on Earlier Research)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1996, 46, (1), 37-43

1995

38. Diferenciace bankovní klientely v podmínkách asymetrické informace (1. èást) (Differentiation of the Banks' Clients Under Asymmetric Information - 1st part)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1995, 45, (8), 409-418
39. Diferenciace bankovní klientely v podmínkách asymetrické informace (2. èást) (Differentiation of Banks' Clients Under Asymmetric Information - 2nd part)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1995, 45, (9), 469-480
40. Modely oceòování aktiv (Models of Assets' Assesment)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1995, 45, (2), 77-88

1994

41. Fiskální politika v jednoduchém fiskálním modelu (Fiscal Policy in the Simple Dynamic Model)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1994, 44, (6), 293-303

1993

42. Mìnová odluka a poptávka po hotovosti (Monetary Separation and Demand for Currency Balances)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1993, 43, (10), 419-425
43. Peníze, nebo úvìry? (Money or Credit?)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1993, 43, (1), 49-57
44. Reálný hospodáøský cyklus, trh práce a monetární politika (Real Business Cycle, Labor Market and Monetary Policy)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1993, 43, (7), 301-307
45. Èeskoslovenská monetární politika po roce 1989 (Czechoslovak Monetary Policy after 1989)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1993, 43, (5), 181-200

1992

46. Centrální banka a veøejnost (The Central Bank and the Public)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1992, 42, (4), 162-175
47. Monetární kritéria v modelu kompetitivního bankovnictví (Monetary Targets in the Model of Competitive Banking)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1992, 42, (12), 591-609

1991

48. Oceòování veøejných statkù a teorie druhého nejlepšího optima (Public Sector Pricing and the Theory of the Second Best)
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1991, 41, (6), 277-284

1990

49. Makroekonomická politika v období privatizace - náèrt základních problémù
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1990, 40, (12), 800-825
50. Mìnová politika a mìnová kritéria v USA
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1990, 40, (7), 498-503
51. Pøíèiny platební neschopnosti: institucionální a mikroekonomické souvislosti
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1990, 40, (6), 402-408
52. Teorie deficitního rozpoètu
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 1990, 40, (3), 165-183

Books

2009

1. CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Financial and Global Stability Issues, vol 7
   Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department View citations (1)

Edited books

2008

1. CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Ten Years of Inflation Targeting, vol 6
   Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

2006

2. CNB Economic Research Bulletin: ERMII and Euro Adoption, vol 4
   Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department
3. CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Research Priorities and Central Banks, vol 4
   Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

2003

4. CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Equilibrium Exchange Rate, vol 1
   Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department