Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?
Ales Bulir (),
Viktor Kotlán and
David Navratil ()
Working Papers from Czech National Bank, Research Department
Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication toolsâ€”inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reportsâ€”provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000â€“05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.
Keywords: Emerging markets; forecasting; inflation targeting; monetary policy; transparency. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E43 E47 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac, nep-mon, nep-sea and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/14
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