Details about Jonathan Scott Davis

Access statistics for papers by Jonathan Scott Davis.

Last updated 2025-07-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pda415

Working Papers

2026

1. AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2. Offshore Dollar Funding Shocks and the Dollar Exchange Rate
   Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)

2025

3. Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
4. China debt overhang leads to rising share of ‘zombie’ firms
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5. China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
6. Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
7. Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
8. Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2025)
9. Real Exchange Rates and the Global Financial Cycle
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10. Transfer payments, household savings play key roles in growing U.S. deficit
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2024

11. Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
12. Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
13. Exchange Rate Determination under Limits to CIP Arbitrage
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2023)
14. Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
15. More household savings offset increased government borrowing since 2008
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
16. Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2023

17. A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    See also Journal Article A theory of capital flow retrenchment, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2024) View citations (4) (2024)
18. A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A theory of net capital flows over the global financial cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2025) (2025)
19. Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
20. Dollar Shortages, CIP Deviations, and the Safe Haven Role of the Dollar
    Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023)
21. Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
22. Russian ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
23. Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2022

24. A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    Also in Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2022) View citations (2)
25. Fed’s 1994 Rate Aggressiveness Led to Emerging-Market Turmoil; Is This Time Different?
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
26. Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
27. Russia Counters Sanctions’ Impact with Currency Controls, Averts Crisis (for Now)
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
28. The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2023) View citations (9) (2023)

2021

29. A Theory of the Global Financial Cycle
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
30. Asset Prices, Leverage and Portfolio Rebalancing Drive Global Capital Flows Cycle
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
31. Don’t Look to the 2013 Tantrum for the Effect of Tapering on Emerging Markets
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
32. Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Land price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with imperfect substitution in real estate markets, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2022) View citations (5) (2022)
33. Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2020

34. Emerging-Market Economies Face COVID-19 and a 'Sudden Stop' in Capital Flows
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
35. Imperfect substitution in real estate markets and the effect of housing demand on corporate investment
    Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics
36. Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (7) (2023)

2019

37. Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (2)
38. Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Tool for Capital Account Management
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)
    Also in Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics (2019) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2021) View citations (17) (2021)
39. Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
40. Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Global drivers of gross and net capital flows, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2021) View citations (45) (2021)
41. Risks Abound If China Uses Debt to Stimulate Economy from Current Downturn
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2018

42. Dealing with Time-Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting vs. Exchange Rate Targeting
    Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne
    Also in CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2017)
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2017) View citations (1)
43. Monetary Policy Divergence and Net Capital Flows: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses
    Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy divergence and net capital flows: Accounting for endogenous policy responses, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2019) View citations (9) (2019)

2017

44. Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (50)
    See also Journal Article Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2017) View citations (55) (2017)
45. Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
    Also in Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2017) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2018) View citations (37) (2018)
46. Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)

2016

47. Central bank communications: a case study
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (3)
48. Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
49. Financial performance and macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging market economies over the global financial cycle
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (3)

2015

50. Capital Controls as an Instrument of Monetary Policy
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (2)
    Also in Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2014) View citations (8)
51. Pegging the exchange rate to gain monetary policy credibility
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)
52. The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: evidence from the Great Depression
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: Evidence from the great depression, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2015) View citations (1) (2015)
53. The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (8)

2014

54. Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (1)
    Also in Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2014) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2016) View citations (50) (2016)
55. Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (22)
56. The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt- and Equity-Based Capital Inflows
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (2)
    Also in Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2014) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (12) (2015)

2013

57. Credit Risks and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs
    Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics View citations (3)
58. Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (6)
    Also in 2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2013) View citations (5)
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2013) View citations (4)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (27) (2016)

2012

59. Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (4)
60. The Effect of Commodity Price Shocks on Underlying Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Credibility
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research View citations (5)
    Also in Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2012) View citations (5)

2011

61. Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (7)
62. Optimal monetary policy under financial sector risk
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (1)

2010

63. International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    See also Journal Article International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2011) View citations (7) (2011)
64. The adverse feedback loop and the effects of risk in both the real and financial sectors
    Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (21)

Journal Articles

2025

1. A theory of net capital flows over the global financial cycle
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2025, 149, (C)
   See also Working Paper A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2023) View citations (1) (2023)

2024

2. A theory of capital flow retrenchment
   Journal of International Economics, 2024, 150, (C) View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2023) (2023)

2023

3. Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention
   Journal of International Economics, 2023, 141, (C) View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention, NBER Working Papers (2020) View citations (8) (2020)
4. The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic
   European Economic Review, 2023, 156, (C) View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2022) View citations (2) (2022)

2022

5. Capital Controls for Crisis Management Policy in a Global Economy
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2022, 14, (1), 60-82
6. Land price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with imperfect substitution in real estate markets
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, 134, (C) View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2021) View citations (3) (2021)

2021

7. Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, 117, (C), 473-488 View citations (17)
   See also Working Paper Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Tool for Capital Account Management, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2019) View citations (1) (2019)
8. Global drivers of gross and net capital flows
   Journal of International Economics, 2021, 128, (C) View citations (45)
   See also Working Paper Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2019) View citations (3) (2019)

2019

9. Monetary policy divergence and net capital flows: Accounting for endogenous policy responses
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 94, (C), 15-31 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Divergence and Net Capital Flows: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses, Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2018

10. Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50, (7), 1369-1399 View citations (8)
11. Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 100, (C), 83-100 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (9) (2017)
12. Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy
    Economic Letter, 2018, 13, (9), 1-4 View citations (3)

2017

13. Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017, 85, (C), 114-130 View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy, International Finance Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (50) (2017)
14. China’s Capital Controls Appear to Arrest Flight, Stabilize Currency
    Economic Letter, 2017, 12, (12), 1-4
15. External debt and monetary policy autonomy
    Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 2017, 35, (82), 53-63 View citations (5)
    Also in Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, 2017, 35, (82), 53-63 (2017) View citations (5)

2016

16. Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016, 60, (C), 360-377 View citations (50)
    See also Working Paper Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account, Working Papers (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
17. Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity
    Journal of International Economics, 2016, 100, (C), 203-219 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity, CAMA Working Papers (2013) View citations (6) (2013)
18. Emerging-market debtor nations likely to follow Fed rate boosts
    Economic Letter, 2016, 11, (1), 1-4 View citations (1)

2015

19. Current account surplus may damp the effects of China’s credit boom
    Economic Letter, 2015, 10, (1), 1-4
20. Diverging Monetary Policies, Global Capital Flows and Financial Stability
    Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, 2015, 28-33
21. External debt sheds light on drivers of exchange rate fluctuations
    Economic Letter, 2015, 10, (4), 1-4
22. The Trilemma in Practice: Monetary Policy Autonomy in an Economy with a Floating Exchange Rate
    Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, 2015, 2-9
23. The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: Evidence from the great depression
    Economics Letters, 2015, 130, (C), 105-108 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: evidence from the Great Depression, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2015) View citations (1) (2015)
24. The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 46, (C), 81-95 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt- and Equity-Based Capital Inflows, Working Papers (2014) View citations (2) (2014)

2014

25. Central bank transparency anchors inflation expectations
    Economic Letter, 2014, 9, (4), 1-4 View citations (3)
26. Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, 64, (C), 99-111 View citations (37)
27. The Political Economy of International Money: Common Currencies, Currency Wars and Exorbitant Privilege
    Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, 2014, 30-35

2013

28. Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations
    Staff Papers, 2013, (Oct) View citations (3)

2012

29. Financial Frictions Conference: Reviews Paths to Monetary Policy Objectives
    Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, 2012, 28-33
30. Inflation expectations have become more anchored over time
    Economic Letter, 2012, 7, (13) View citations (11)

2011

31. International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability
    Journal of International Economics, 2011, 85, (2), 302-316 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability, Globalization Institute Working Papers (2010) (2010)
32. Relating commodity prices to underlying inflation: the role of expectations
    Economic Letter, 2011, 6, (dec)