Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations

Jonathan Davis and Adrienne Mack

Staff Papers, 2013, issue Oct

Abstract: This paper develops a method for measuring the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations that does not require estimates of long-run inflation expectations. Such estimates exist for only a few developed economies, and even then only a short time series is available. By not requiring estimates of long-term inflation expectations, this method is able to measure the anchoring of inflation expectations in sixty-four different developed and developing countries. In addition, with rolling-window estimations we can measure the anchoring of expectations across time within a country, and thus we can observe how inflation expectations became unanchored in many countries during the 1970s. Then we can observe how, through means like inflation targeting and monetary unification, these expectations were re-anchored during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.

Date: 2013
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