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Details about William Thomas Gavin

E-mail:
Homepage:http://www.stls.frb.org/research/econ/gavin/
Phone:(314) 873-8422
Postal address:498 Overlook Dr Edwardsville, Illinois 62025
Workplace:Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by William Thomas Gavin.

Last updated 2019-10-12. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pga34


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Working Papers

2014

  1. The stimulative effect of forward guidance
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Review (2015)

2013

  1. Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound
    Auburn Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Auburn University Downloads View citations (19)
    Also in 2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2013) Downloads View citations (5)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) Downloads View citations (9)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2015)
  2. Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2015)

2012

  1. The zero lower bound and the dual mandate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (4)
  2. U.S. monetary policy: a view from macro theory
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Open Economies Review (2013)

2009

  1. Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)

2007

  1. Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2009)
  2. Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2009)

2006

  1. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2008)
  2. Gold, fiat money and price stability
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) Downloads View citations (5)

    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2007)
  3. Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) View citations (2)
    2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2005) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)

2005

  1. Recent developments in monetary macroeconomics and U.S. dollar policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)
  2. The monetary instrument matters
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2005)

2004

  1. A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Forecasting (2005)
  2. Inflation persistence and flexible prices
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002) View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (2005)
  3. Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2005)

2003

  1. FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2003)
  2. Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (13)

2002

  1. Evaluating FOMC forecasts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2003)

2000

  1. Controlling inflation after Bretton Woods: an analysis based on policy objectives
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads
  2. Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2001)
  3. The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2000)

1999

  1. What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2000)

1997

  1. Endogenous money supply and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (1996) Downloads View citations (10)

    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (1999)

1991

  1. A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Policy Modeling (1994)
  2. Zero inflation: transition costs and shoe-leather benefits
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Contemporary Economic Policy (1993)

1990

  1. In defense of zero inflation
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)

1989

  1. The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Cato Journal (1989)

1985

  1. Federal reserve credibility and the market's response to the weekly M1 announcements
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)

1984

  1. Monetary policy and real interest rates: new evidence from the money stock announcements
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (6)
  2. Velocity: a multivariate time-series approach
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads

1983

  1. Forecasting the money supply in time series models
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
  2. Non-nested specification tests and the intermediate target for monetary policy
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads

1982

  1. Stability in a model of staggered-reserve accounting
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads

Journal Articles

2018

  1. Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate
    Review, 2018, 100, (2), 151-69 Downloads View citations (4)

2017

  1. NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK AND FUTURES RETURNS: AN UNEXPLOITED HEDGING OPPORTUNITY?
    Bulletin of Economic Research, 2017, 69, (3), 209-215 Downloads

2015

  1. Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2015, 18, (3), 694-707 Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
    Software Item (2014)
  2. The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, 55, (C), 14-38 Downloads View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  3. Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy
    Review, 2015, 97, (1), 1-24 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2014

  1. The ups and downs of inflation and the role of Fed credibility
    The Regional Economist, 2014 Downloads

2013

  1. Household wealth: has it recovered?
    Economic Synopses, 2013 Downloads
  2. Introduction and related material
    Review, 2013, (Nov), 449-450 Downloads
  3. Low interest rates have yet to spur job growth
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (Apr) Downloads
  4. The mechanics behind manufacturing job losses
    Economic Synopses, 2013 Downloads
  5. U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory
    Open Economies Review, 2013, 24, (1), 33-49 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2012)

2012

  1. Commodity futures index trading and spot oil prices
    Economic Synopses, 2012 Downloads
  2. Taylor-type rules and total factor productivity
    Review, 2012, 94, (Jan), 41-64 Downloads
  3. What is potential GDP and why does it matter?
    Economic Synopses, 2012 Downloads View citations (6)

2011

  1. CPI inflation: running on motor fuel
    Economic Synopses, 2011 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. What explains the growth in commodity derivatives?
    Review, 2011, 93, (Jan), 37-48 Downloads View citations (10)

2010

  1. Are low interest rates good for consumers?
    Economic Synopses, 2010 Downloads
  2. Deflation and the Fisher equation
    Economic Synopses, 2010 Downloads View citations (1)
  3. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2010, 92, (May), 225-228 Downloads

2009

  1. INFLATION RISK AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2009, 13, (S1), 58-75 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  2. Monetary policy stance: the view from consumption spending
    Economic Synopses, 2009 Downloads
  3. More money: understanding recent changes in the monetary base
    Review, 2009, 91, (Mar), 49-60 Downloads View citations (8)
  4. Más dinero: entendiendo los recientes cambios en la base monetaria
    Boletín, 2009, LV, (1), 26-33 Downloads
  5. Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009, 28, (5), 868-879 Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2008

  1. FOMC consensus forecasts
    Review, 2008, 90, (May), 149-164 Downloads View citations (10)
  2. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
    Review, 2008, 90, (May), 175-192 Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  3. Index funds: hedgers or speculators?
    National Economic Trends, 2008, (Jul) Downloads
  4. Measuring consensus as the midpoint of the central tendency
    Monetary Trends, 2008, (Feb) Downloads

2007

  1. Economic forecasts: public and private
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (Apr) Downloads
  2. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2007, 89, (Jul), 209-214 Downloads
  3. Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, 7, (1), 1-31 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  4. Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (6), 1587-1611 Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  5. Recent Developments in Monetary Macroeconomics and US Dollar Policy
    The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, V, (3), 49-56
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  6. Stable interest rates follow stable prices
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Jul) Downloads

2006

  1. Movin' On Up
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 12-13 Downloads
  2. Recent trends in homeownership
    Review, 2006, 88, (Sep), 397-412 Downloads View citations (5)
  3. Who's worrying about inflation?
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Dec) Downloads

2005

  1. A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
    Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 24, (3), 203-219 Downloads View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  2. INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES
    International Economic Review, 2005, 46, (1), 245-261 Downloads View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  3. Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy
    Economics Letters, 2005, 88, (3), 336-342 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  4. M2 and 'reigniting inflation'
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Jun) Downloads View citations (1)
  5. Monetary policy and commodity futures
    Review, 2005, 87, (May), 395-405 Downloads
  6. The monetary instrument matters
    Review, 2005, 87, (Sep), 633-658 Downloads View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  7. Trends in home ownership
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Dec) Downloads

2004

  1. Gasoline affordability
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Nov) Downloads
  2. How money matters
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Jun) Downloads

2003

  1. Evaluating FOMC forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (4), 655-667 Downloads View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper (2002)
  2. FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?
    Review, 2003, 85, (May), 27-46 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
  3. PPI versus CPI inflation
    National Economic Trends, 2003, (Feb) Downloads
  4. Pronósticos del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto: ¿Está toda la información dentro de la tendencia central?
    Monetaria, 2003, XXVI, (2), 207-236 Downloads
  5. What should a central bank look like?
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jul), 4-9 Downloads

2002

  1. Consensus and monetary policy forecasts
    Monetary Trends, 2002, (Oct) Downloads
  2. Predicting inflation: food for thought
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jan.), 4-9 Downloads View citations (7)
  3. Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity
    Review, 2002, 84, (May), 15-28 Downloads View citations (6)

2001

  1. Economic news and monetary policy
    National Economic Trends, 2001, (Jul) Downloads
  2. Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
    Review, 2001, 83, (May), 11-20 Downloads View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2000

  1. Available labor supply
    National Economic Trends, 2000, (Feb) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Inside the briefcase: the art of predicting the Federal Reserve
    The Regional Economist, 2000, (Jul), 4-9 Downloads
  3. Mixed signals?
    National Economic Trends, 2000, (Jul) Downloads View citations (2)
  4. The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change
    Review, 2000, 82, (Nov), 39-61 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
  5. What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?
    Review, 2000, 82, (Mar), 21-30 Downloads View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

1999

  1. Consumer price inflation and housing prices
    National Economic Trends, 1999, (Apr) Downloads
  2. Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 1999, 2, (2), 347-369 Downloads View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
  3. Forecasting CPI inflation
    National Economic Trends, 1999, (Oct) Downloads
  4. Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting
    Review, 1999, 81, (Jul), 23-34 Downloads View citations (13)
  5. The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets
    Review, 1999, (Jan), 23-32 Downloads View citations (28)

1998

  1. Payroll jobs and GDP
    National Economic Trends, 1998, (May) Downloads

1997

  1. Productivity and technology
    National Economic Trends, 1997, (May) Downloads

1996

  1. Armen Alchian's Contribution to Macroeconomics
    Economic Inquiry, 1996, 34, (3), 496-505 View citations (1)
  2. The FOMC in 1995: a step closer to inflation targeting?
    Review, 1996, (Sep), 29-47 Downloads

1994

  1. A different kind of money illusion: The case of long and variable lags
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1994, 16, (5), 529-540 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (1991)

1993

  1. Inflation Uncertainty: A Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Introduction
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1993, 25, (3), 469-74 Downloads
  2. Inflation uncertainty; a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Nov. 4-6, 1992
    Proceedings, 1993, (Aug)
  3. Introduction
    Proceedings, 1993, 469-474
  4. ZERO INFLATION: TRANSITION COSTS AND SHOE LEATHER BENEFITS
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 1993, 11, (1), 9-17 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (1991)

1992

  1. A price objective for monetary policy
    Economic Commentary, 1992, (Apr) Downloads View citations (3)

1991

  1. A conference on price stability
    Economic Review, 1991, 27, (Q IV), 2-9 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Forecast accuracy and monetary policy
    Economic Commentary, 1991, (Jan) Downloads View citations (1)
  3. Introduction
    Proceedings, 1991, 433-438
  4. Price Stability: A Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 8-10, 1990: Introduction
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1991, 23, (3), 433-38 Downloads
  5. Price stability; a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 8-10, 1991
    Proceedings, 1991, (Aug)
  6. Why a rule for stable prices may dominate a rule for zero inflation
    Economic Review, 1991, 27, (Q I), 2-8 Downloads View citations (1)

1990

  1. Price stability and the Swedish monetary experiment
    Economic Commentary, 1990, (Dec) Downloads View citations (2)
  2. The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy
    Economic Review, 1990, 26, (Q III), 26-35 Downloads

1989

  1. Monetary policy and the M2 target
    Economic Commentary, 1989, (Dec) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. The Effect of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity
    Cato Journal, 1989, 9, (1), 149-164 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (1989)

1988

  1. Humphrey-Hawkins: the July monetary policy report
    Economic Commentary, 1988, (Aug) Downloads
  2. The case for zero inflation
    Economic Commentary, 1988, (Sep) Downloads View citations (6)

1987

  1. M1A - M.I.A.?
    Economic Commentary, 1987, (Jul) Downloads

1986

  1. Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?
    Economic Review, 1986, (Q III), 14-19 Downloads
  2. Evidence on the random behavior of weekly M1 data
    Economics Letters, 1986, 22, (2-3), 263-267 Downloads
  3. Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1986, 18, (4), 539-44 Downloads View citations (33)
  4. Monetarism and the M1 target
    Economic Commentary, 1986, (Oct) Downloads

1985

  1. The M1 target and disinflation policy
    Economic Commentary, 1985, (Oct) Downloads
  2. The reserve market and the information content of M1 announcements
    Economic Review, 1985, (Q I), 11-28 Downloads View citations (2)

1984

  1. Reflections on money and inflation
    Economic Review, 1984, (Win), 2-6 Downloads
  2. The monetary targets in 1984
    Economic Commentary, 1984, (Mar) Downloads

1983

  1. Velocity and monetary targets
    Economic Commentary, 1983, (Jun) Downloads

1982

  1. The case for staggered-reserve accounting
    Economic Review, 1982, (Spr), 30-36 Downloads

1981

  1. Money and Inflation in a Small Model of the German Economy
    Empirical Economics, 1981, 6, (3), 173-85 View citations (1)

Software Items

2014

  1. Code and data files for "Monetary Policy, the Tax code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks"
    Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2015)
 
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