Details about William Thomas Gavin
Access statistics for papers by William Thomas Gavin.
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Short-id: pga34
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Working Papers
2014
- Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (3) (2015)
2013
- Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound
Auburn Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Auburn University View citations (26)
Also in 2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2013) View citations (20) Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) View citations (11)
See also Journal Article The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2015) View citations (40) (2015)
- Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2013) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2015) View citations (7) (2015)
- The stimulative effect of forward guidance
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
2012
- The zero lower bound and the dual mandate
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
- U.S. monetary policy: a view from macro theory
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 
See also Journal Article U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory, Open Economies Review, Springer (2013) (2013)
2009
- Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
2007
- Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
See also Journal Article INFLATION RISK AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2009) View citations (3) (2009)
- Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
See also Journal Article Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2009) View citations (13) (2009)
2006
- Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2008) View citations (12) (2008)
- Gold, fiat money and price stability
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (8)
See also Journal Article Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2007) View citations (6) (2007)
- Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) View citations (3) 2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2005) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) View citations (18) (2007)
2005
- Recent developments in monetary macroeconomics and U.S. dollar policy
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 
See also Journal Article Recent Developments in Monetary Macroeconomics and US Dollar Policy, The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications (2007) (2007)
- The monetary instrument matters
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (25)
See also Journal Article The monetary instrument matters, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (10) (2005)
2004
- A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
See also Journal Article A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2005) View citations (35) (2005)
- Inflation persistence and flexible prices
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2005) View citations (32) (2005)
- Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
See also Journal Article Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2005) View citations (11) (2005)
2003
- FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (16)
See also Journal Article FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003) View citations (10) (2003)
- Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (16)
2002
- Evaluating FOMC forecasts
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
See also Journal Article Evaluating FOMC forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2003) View citations (47) (2003)
2000
- Controlling inflation after Bretton Woods: an analysis based on policy objectives
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2001) View citations (43) (2001)
- The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
See also Journal Article The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2000) View citations (6) (2000)
1999
- What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)
See also Journal Article What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2000) View citations (39) (2000)
1997
- Endogenous money supply and the business cycle
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (1996) View citations (11)
See also Journal Article Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (1999) View citations (43) (1999)
1991
- A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
See also Journal Article A different kind of money illusion: The case of long and variable lags, Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier (1994) View citations (10) (1994)
- Zero inflation: transition costs and shoe-leather benefits
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (5)
See also Journal Article ZERO INFLATION: TRANSITION COSTS AND SHOE LEATHER BENEFITS, Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International (1993) View citations (5) (1993)
1990
- In defense of zero inflation
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
1989
- The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 
See also Journal Article The Effect of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity, Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute (1989) (1989)
1985
- Federal reserve credibility and the market's response to the weekly M1 announcements
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
1984
- Monetary policy and real interest rates: new evidence from the money stock announcements
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (8)
- Velocity: a multivariate time-series approach
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
1983
- Forecasting the money supply in time series models
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Non-nested specification tests and the intermediate target for monetary policy
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
1982
- Stability in a model of staggered-reserve accounting
Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Journal Articles
2018
- Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate
Review, 2018, 100, (2), 151-69 View citations (7)
2017
- NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK AND FUTURES RETURNS: AN UNEXPLOITED HEDGING OPPORTUNITY?
Bulletin of Economic Research, 2017, 69, (3), 209-215 View citations (1)
2015
- Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2015, 18, (3), 694-707 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks, Working Papers (2013) View citations (2) (2013) Software Item Code and data files for "Monetary Policy, the Tax code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks", Computer Codes (2014) (2014)
- The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, 55, (C), 14-38 View citations (40)
See also Working Paper Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound, Auburn Economics Working Paper Series (2013) View citations (26) (2013)
- Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy
Review, 2015, 97, (1), 1-24 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy, Working Papers (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
2014
- The ups and downs of inflation and the role of Fed credibility
The Regional Economist, 2014 View citations (1)
2013
- Household wealth: has it recovered?
Economic Synopses, 2013
- Introduction and related material
Review, 2013, (Nov), 449-450
- Low interest rates have yet to spur job growth
The Regional Economist, 2013, (Apr)
- The mechanics behind manufacturing job losses
Economic Synopses, 2013
- U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory
Open Economies Review, 2013, 24, (1), 33-49 
See also Working Paper U.S. monetary policy: a view from macro theory, Working Papers (2012) (2012)
2012
- Commodity futures index trading and spot oil prices
Economic Synopses, 2012
- Taylor-type rules and total factor productivity
Review, 2012, 94, (Jan), 41-64
- What is potential GDP and why does it matter?
Economic Synopses, 2012 View citations (6)
2011
- CPI inflation: running on motor fuel
Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (2)
- What explains the growth in commodity derivatives?
Review, 2011, 93, (Jan), 37-48 View citations (11)
2010
- Are low interest rates good for consumers?
Economic Synopses, 2010
- Deflation and the Fisher equation
Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (1)
- Editor's introduction
Review, 2010, 92, (May), 225-228
2009
- INFLATION RISK AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2009, 13, (S1), 58-75 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy, Working Papers (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
- Monetary policy stance: the view from consumption spending
Economic Synopses, 2009
- More money: understanding recent changes in the monetary base
Review, 2009, 91, (Mar), 49-60 View citations (10)
- Más dinero: entendiendo los recientes cambios en la base monetaria
Boletín, 2009, LV, (1), 26-33
- Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009, 28, (5), 868-879 View citations (13)
See also Working Paper Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies, Working Papers (2007) View citations (4) (2007)
2008
- FOMC consensus forecasts
Review, 2008, 90, (May), 149-164 View citations (14)
- Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
Review, 2008, 90, (May), 175-192 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules, Working Papers (2006) View citations (6) (2006)
- Index funds: hedgers or speculators?
National Economic Trends, 2008, (Jul)
- Measuring consensus as the midpoint of the central tendency
Monetary Trends, 2008, (Feb)
2007
- Economic forecasts: public and private
Monetary Trends, 2007, (Apr)
- Editor's introduction
Review, 2007, 89, (Jul), 209-214
- Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, 7, (1), 31 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper Gold, fiat money and price stability, Working Papers (2006) View citations (2) (2006)
- Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (6), 1587-1611 View citations (18)
See also Working Paper Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle, Working Papers (2006) View citations (2) (2006)
- Recent Developments in Monetary Macroeconomics and US Dollar Policy
The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, V, (3), 49-56
See also Working Paper Recent developments in monetary macroeconomics and U.S. dollar policy, Working Papers (2005) (2005)
- Stable interest rates follow stable prices
National Economic Trends, 2007, (Jul)
2006
- Movin' On Up
The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 12-13
- Recent trends in homeownership
Review, 2006, 88, (Sep), 397-412 View citations (5)
- Who's worrying about inflation?
Monetary Trends, 2006, (Dec)
2005
- A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 24, (3), 203-219 View citations (35)
See also Working Paper A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error, Working Papers (2004) View citations (2) (2004)
- INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES
International Economic Review, 2005, 46, (1), 245-261 View citations (32)
See also Working Paper Inflation persistence and flexible prices, Working Papers (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
- Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy
Economics Letters, 2005, 88, (3), 336-342 View citations (11)
See also Working Paper Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy, Working Papers (2004) View citations (5) (2004)
- M2 and 'reigniting inflation'
Monetary Trends, 2005, (Jun) View citations (1)
- Monetary policy and commodity futures
Review, 2005, 87, (May), 395-405
- The monetary instrument matters
Review, 2005, 87, (Sep), 633-658 View citations (10)
See also Working Paper The monetary instrument matters, Working Papers (2005) View citations (25) (2005)
- Trends in home ownership
National Economic Trends, 2005, (Dec)
2004
- Gasoline affordability
National Economic Trends, 2004, (Nov)
- How money matters
Monetary Trends, 2004, (Jun)
2003
- Evaluating FOMC forecasts
International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (4), 655-667 View citations (47)
See also Working Paper Evaluating FOMC forecasts, Working Papers (2002) View citations (3) (2002)
- FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?
Review, 2003, 85, (May), 27-46 View citations (10)
See also Working Paper FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?, Working Papers (2003) View citations (16) (2003)
- PPI versus CPI inflation
National Economic Trends, 2003, (Feb)
- Pronósticos del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto: ¿Está toda la información dentro de la tendencia central?
Monetaria, 2003, XXVI, (2), 207-236
- What should a central bank look like?
The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jul), 4-9
2002
- Consensus and monetary policy forecasts
Monetary Trends, 2002, (Oct)
- Predicting inflation: food for thought
The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jan.), 4-9 View citations (9)
- Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity
Review, 2002, 84, (May), 15-28 View citations (8)
2001
- Economic news and monetary policy
National Economic Trends, 2001, (Jul)
- Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
Review, 2001, 83, (May), 11-20 View citations (43)
See also Working Paper Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?, Working Papers (2000) View citations (7) (2000)
2000
- Available labor supply
National Economic Trends, 2000, (Feb) View citations (1)
- Inside the briefcase: the art of predicting the Federal Reserve
The Regional Economist, 2000, (Jul), 4-9 View citations (1)
- Mixed signals?
National Economic Trends, 2000, (Jul) View citations (2)
- The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change
Review, 2000, 82, (Nov), 39-61 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change, Working Papers (2000) View citations (6) (2000)
- What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?
Review, 2000, 82, (Mar), 21-30 View citations (39)
See also Working Paper What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?, Working Papers (1999) View citations (10) (1999)
1999
- Consumer price inflation and housing prices
National Economic Trends, 1999, (Apr)
- Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle
Review of Economic Dynamics, 1999, 2, (2), 347-369 View citations (43)
See also Working Paper Endogenous money supply and the business cycle, Working Papers (1997) View citations (1) (1997)
- Forecasting CPI inflation
National Economic Trends, 1999, (Oct)
- Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting
Review, 1999, 81, (Jul), 23-34 View citations (16)
- The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets
Review, 1999, (Jan), 23-32 View citations (29)
1998
- Payroll jobs and GDP
National Economic Trends, 1998, (May)
1997
- Productivity and technology
National Economic Trends, 1997, (May) View citations (1)
1996
- Armen Alchian's Contribution to Macroeconomics
Economic Inquiry, 1996, 34, (3), 496-505 View citations (1)
- The FOMC in 1995: a step closer to inflation targeting?
Review, 1996, (Sep), 29-47 View citations (1)
1994
- A different kind of money illusion: The case of long and variable lags
Journal of Policy Modeling, 1994, 16, (5), 529-540 View citations (10)
See also Working Paper A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags, Working Papers (Old Series) (1991) View citations (1) (1991)
1993
- Inflation Uncertainty: A Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Introduction
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1993, 25, (3), 469-74
- Inflation uncertainty; a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Nov. 4-6, 1992
Proceedings, 1993, (Aug)
- Introduction
Proceedings, 1993, 469-474
- ZERO INFLATION: TRANSITION COSTS AND SHOE LEATHER BENEFITS
Contemporary Economic Policy, 1993, 11, (1), 9-17 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper Zero inflation: transition costs and shoe-leather benefits, Working Papers (Old Series) (1991) View citations (5) (1991)
1992
- A price objective for monetary policy
Economic Commentary, 1992, (Apr) View citations (3)
1991
- A conference on price stability
Economic Review, 1991, 27, (Q IV), 2-9 View citations (1)
- Forecast accuracy and monetary policy
Economic Commentary, 1991, (Jan) View citations (1)
- Introduction
Proceedings, 1991, 433-438
- Price Stability: A Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 8-10, 1990: Introduction
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1991, 23, (3), 433-38
- Price stability; a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 8-10, 1991
Proceedings, 1991, (Aug) View citations (1)
- Why a rule for stable prices may dominate a rule for zero inflation
Economic Review, 1991, 27, (Q I), 2-8 View citations (1)
1990
- Price stability and the Swedish monetary experiment
Economic Commentary, 1990, (Dec) View citations (3)
- The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy
Economic Review, 1990, 26, (Q III), 26-35 View citations (1)
1989
- Monetary policy and the M2 target
Economic Commentary, 1989, (Dec) View citations (1)
- The Effect of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity
Cato Journal, 1989, 9, (1), 149-164 
See also Working Paper The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity, Working Papers (Old Series) (1989) (1989)
1988
- Humphrey-Hawkins: the July monetary policy report
Economic Commentary, 1988, (Aug)
- The case for zero inflation
Economic Commentary, 1988, (Sep) View citations (6)
1987
- M1A - M.I.A.?
Economic Commentary, 1987, (Jul)
1986
- Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?
Economic Review, 1986, (Q III), 14-19
- Evidence on the random behavior of weekly M1 data
Economics Letters, 1986, 22, (2-3), 263-267
- Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1986, 18, (4), 539-44 View citations (34)
- Monetarism and the M1 target
Economic Commentary, 1986, (Oct)
1985
- The M1 target and disinflation policy
Economic Commentary, 1985, (Oct)
- The reserve market and the information content of M1 announcements
Economic Review, 1985, (Q I), 11-28 View citations (2)
1984
- Reflections on money and inflation
Economic Review, 1984, (Win), 2-6
- The monetary targets in 1984
Economic Commentary, 1984, (Mar)
1983
- Velocity and monetary targets
Economic Commentary, 1983, (Jun)
1982
- The case for staggered-reserve accounting
Economic Review, 1982, (Spr), 30-36
1981
- Money and Inflation in a Small Model of the German Economy
Empirical Economics, 1981, 6, (3), 173-85 View citations (1)
Software Items
2014
- Code and data files for "Monetary Policy, the Tax code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks"
Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics 
See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2015) View citations (7) (2015)
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