Details about William Thomas Gavin

E-mail:
Homepage:	https://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/gavin/jp/
Phone:	(314) 873-8422
Postal address:	498 Overlook Dr Edwardsville, Illinois 62025
Workplace:	Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by William Thomas Gavin.

Last updated 2021-09-14. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pga34

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Working Papers

2014

1. Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (3) (2015)

2013

2. Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound
   Auburn Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Auburn University View citations (26)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2013) View citations (11)
   2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2013) View citations (20)
   See also Journal Article The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2015) View citations (40) (2015)
3. Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2013) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2015) View citations (7) (2015)
4. The stimulative effect of forward guidance
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)

2012

5. The zero lower bound and the dual mandate
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
6. U.S. monetary policy: a view from macro theory
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
   See also Journal Article U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory, Open Economies Review, Springer (2013) (2013)

2009

7. Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)

2007

8. Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article INFLATION RISK AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2009) View citations (3) (2009)
9. Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2009) View citations (13) (2009)

2006

10. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2008) View citations (12) (2008)
11. Gold, fiat money and price stability
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2007) View citations (7) (2007)
12. Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    Also in 2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2005) View citations (1)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) View citations (18) (2007)

2005

13. Recent developments in monetary macroeconomics and U.S. dollar policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Recent Developments in Monetary Macroeconomics and US Dollar Policy, The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications (2007) (2007)
14. The monetary instrument matters
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article The monetary instrument matters, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (10) (2005)

2004

15. A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2005) View citations (35) (2005)
16. Inflation persistence and flexible prices
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2005) View citations (32) (2005)
17. Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2005) View citations (11) (2005)

2003

18. FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003) View citations (10) (2003)
19. Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (16)

2002

20. Evaluating FOMC forecasts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating FOMC forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2003) View citations (47) (2003)

2000

21. Controlling inflation after Bretton Woods: an analysis based on policy objectives
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22. Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2001) View citations (43) (2001)
23. The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2000) View citations (6) (2000)

1999

24. What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2000) View citations (39) (2000)

1997

25. Endogenous money supply and the business cycle
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (1996) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (1999) View citations (43) (1999)

1991

26. A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A different kind of money illusion: The case of long and variable lags, Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier (1994) View citations (10) (1994)
27. Zero inflation: transition costs and shoe-leather benefits
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article ZERO INFLATION: TRANSITION COSTS AND SHOE LEATHER BENEFITS, Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International (1993) View citations (5) (1993)

1990

28. In defense of zero inflation
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)

1989

29. The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    See also Journal Article The Effect of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity, Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute (1989) (1989)

1985

30. Federal reserve credibility and the market's response to the weekly M1 announcements
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)

1984

31. Monetary policy and real interest rates: new evidence from the money stock announcements
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (8)
32. Velocity: a multivariate time-series approach
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

1983

33. Forecasting the money supply in time series models
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
34. Non-nested specification tests and the intermediate target for monetary policy
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

1982

35. Stability in a model of staggered-reserve accounting
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Journal Articles

2018

1. Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate
   Review, 2018, 100, (2), 151-69 View citations (7)

2017

2. NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK AND FUTURES RETURNS: AN UNEXPLOITED HEDGING OPPORTUNITY?
   Bulletin of Economic Research, 2017, 69, (3), 209-215 View citations (1)

2015

3. Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks
   Review of Economic Dynamics, 2015, 18, (3), 694-707 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks, Working Papers (2013) View citations (2) (2013)
   Software Item Code and data files for "Monetary Policy, the Tax code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks", Computer Codes (2014) (2014)
4. The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, 55, (C), 14-38 View citations (40)
   See also Working Paper Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound, Auburn Economics Working Paper Series (2013) View citations (26) (2013)
5. Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy
   Review, 2015, 97, (1), 1-24 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Three Scenarios for Interest Rates in the Transition to Normalcy, Working Papers (2014) View citations (1) (2014)

2014

6. The ups and downs of inflation and the role of Fed credibility
   The Regional Economist, 2014 View citations (1)

2013

7. Household wealth: has it recovered?
   Economic Synopses, 2013
8. Introduction and related material
   Review, 2013, (Nov), 449-450
9. Low interest rates have yet to spur job growth
   The Regional Economist, 2013, (Apr)
10. The mechanics behind manufacturing job losses
    Economic Synopses, 2013
11. U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory
    Open Economies Review, 2013, 24, (1), 33-49
    See also Working Paper U.S. monetary policy: a view from macro theory, Working Papers (2012) (2012)

2012

12. Commodity futures index trading and spot oil prices
    Economic Synopses, 2012
13. Taylor-type rules and total factor productivity
    Review, 2012, 94, (Jan), 41-64
14. What is potential GDP and why does it matter?
    Economic Synopses, 2012 View citations (6)

2011

15. CPI inflation: running on motor fuel
    Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (2)
16. What explains the growth in commodity derivatives?
    Review, 2011, 93, (Jan), 37-48 View citations (11)

2010

17. Are low interest rates good for consumers?
    Economic Synopses, 2010
18. Deflation and the Fisher equation
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (1)
19. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2010, 92, (May), 225-228

2009

20. INFLATION RISK AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2009, 13, (S1), 58-75 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy, Working Papers (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
21. Monetary policy stance: the view from consumption spending
    Economic Synopses, 2009
22. More money: understanding recent changes in the monetary base
    Review, 2009, 91, (Mar), 49-60 View citations (10)
23. Más dinero: entendiendo los recientes cambios en la base monetaria
    Boletín, 2009, LV, (1), 26-33
24. Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009, 28, (5), 868-879 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies, Working Papers (2007) View citations (4) (2007)

2008

25. FOMC consensus forecasts
    Review, 2008, 90, (May), 149-164 View citations (14)
26. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
    Review, 2008, 90, (May), 175-192 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules, Working Papers (2006) View citations (6) (2006)
27. Index funds: hedgers or speculators?
    National Economic Trends, 2008, (Jul)
28. Measuring consensus as the midpoint of the central tendency
    Monetary Trends, 2008, (Feb)

2007

29. Economic forecasts: public and private
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (Apr)
30. Editor's introduction
    Review, 2007, 89, (Jul), 209-214
31. Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, 7, (1), 31 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Gold, fiat money and price stability, Working Papers (2006) View citations (2) (2006)
32. Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (6), 1587-1611 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy, taxes and the business cycle, Working Papers (2006) View citations (2) (2006)
33. Recent Developments in Monetary Macroeconomics and US Dollar Policy
    The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, V, (3), 49-56
    See also Working Paper Recent developments in monetary macroeconomics and U.S. dollar policy, Working Papers (2005) (2005)
34. Stable interest rates follow stable prices
    National Economic Trends, 2007, (Jul)

2006

35. Movin' On Up
    The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 12-13
36. Recent trends in homeownership
    Review, 2006, 88, (Sep), 397-412 View citations (5)
37. Who's worrying about inflation?
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Dec)

2005

38. A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error
    Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 24, (3), 203-219 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error, Working Papers (2004) View citations (2) (2004)
39. INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES
    International Economic Review, 2005, 46, (1), 245-261 View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper Inflation persistence and flexible prices, Working Papers (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
40. Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy
    Economics Letters, 2005, 88, (3), 336-342 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy, Working Papers (2004) View citations (5) (2004)
41. M2 and 'reigniting inflation'
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Jun) View citations (1)
42. Monetary policy and commodity futures
    Review, 2005, 87, (May), 395-405
43. The monetary instrument matters
    Review, 2005, 87, (Sep), 633-658 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper The monetary instrument matters, Working Papers (2005) View citations (25) (2005)
44. Trends in home ownership
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (Dec)

2004

45. Gasoline affordability
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Nov)
46. How money matters
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Jun)

2003

47. Evaluating FOMC forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (4), 655-667 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper Evaluating FOMC forecasts, Working Papers (2002) View citations (3) (2002)
48. FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?
    Review, 2003, 85, (May), 27-46 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?, Working Papers (2003) View citations (16) (2003)
49. PPI versus CPI inflation
    National Economic Trends, 2003, (Feb)
50. Pronósticos del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto: ¿Está toda la información dentro de la tendencia central?
    Monetaria, 2003, XXVI, (2), 207-236
51. What should a central bank look like?
    The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jul), 4-9

2002

52. Consensus and monetary policy forecasts
    Monetary Trends, 2002, (Oct)
53. Predicting inflation: food for thought
    The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jan.), 4-9 View citations (9)
54. Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity
    Review, 2002, 84, (May), 15-28 View citations (8)

2001

55. Economic news and monetary policy
    National Economic Trends, 2001, (Jul)
56. Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
    Review, 2001, 83, (May), 11-20 View citations (43)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?, Working Papers (2000) View citations (7) (2000)

2000

57. Available labor supply
    National Economic Trends, 2000, (Feb) View citations (1)
58. Inside the briefcase: the art of predicting the Federal Reserve
    The Regional Economist, 2000, (Jul), 4-9 View citations (1)
59. Mixed signals?
    National Economic Trends, 2000, (Jul) View citations (2)
60. The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change
    Review, 2000, 82, (Nov), 39-61 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change, Working Papers (2000) View citations (6) (2000)
61. What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?
    Review, 2000, 82, (Mar), 21-30 View citations (39)
    See also Working Paper What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price level targeting?, Working Papers (1999) View citations (10) (1999)

1999

62. Consumer price inflation and housing prices
    National Economic Trends, 1999, (Apr)
63. Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 1999, 2, (2), 347-369 View citations (43)
    See also Working Paper Endogenous money supply and the business cycle, Working Papers (1997) View citations (1) (1997)
64. Forecasting CPI inflation
    National Economic Trends, 1999, (Oct)
65. Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting
    Review, 1999, 81, (Jul), 23-34 View citations (16)
66. The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets
    Review, 1999, (Jan), 23-32 View citations (29)

1998

67. Payroll jobs and GDP
    National Economic Trends, 1998, (May)

1997

68. Productivity and technology
    National Economic Trends, 1997, (May) View citations (1)

1996

69. Armen Alchian's Contribution to Macroeconomics
    Economic Inquiry, 1996, 34, (3), 496-505 View citations (1)
70. The FOMC in 1995: a step closer to inflation targeting?
    Review, 1996, (Sep), 29-47 View citations (1)

1994

71. A different kind of money illusion: The case of long and variable lags
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1994, 16, (5), 529-540 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags, Working Papers (Old Series) (1991) View citations (1) (1991)

1993

72. Inflation Uncertainty: A Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Introduction
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1993, 25, (3), 469-74
73. Inflation uncertainty; a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Nov. 4-6, 1992
    Proceedings, 1993, (Aug)
74. Introduction
    Proceedings, 1993, 469-474
75. ZERO INFLATION: TRANSITION COSTS AND SHOE LEATHER BENEFITS
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 1993, 11, (1), 9-17 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Zero inflation: transition costs and shoe-leather benefits, Working Papers (Old Series) (1991) View citations (5) (1991)

1992

76. A price objective for monetary policy
    Economic Commentary, 1992, (Apr) View citations (3)

1991

77. A conference on price stability
    Economic Review, 1991, 27, (Q IV), 2-9 View citations (1)
78. Forecast accuracy and monetary policy
    Economic Commentary, 1991, (Jan) View citations (1)
79. Introduction
    Proceedings, 1991, 433-438
80. Price Stability: A Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 8-10, 1990: Introduction
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1991, 23, (3), 433-38
81. Price stability; a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 8-10, 1991
    Proceedings, 1991, (Aug) View citations (1)
82. Why a rule for stable prices may dominate a rule for zero inflation
    Economic Review, 1991, 27, (Q I), 2-8 View citations (1)

1990

83. Price stability and the Swedish monetary experiment
    Economic Commentary, 1990, (Dec) View citations (3)
84. The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy
    Economic Review, 1990, 26, (Q III), 26-35 View citations (1)

1989

85. Monetary policy and the M2 target
    Economic Commentary, 1989, (Dec) View citations (1)
86. The Effect of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity
    Cato Journal, 1989, 9, (1), 149-164
    See also Working Paper The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity, Working Papers (Old Series) (1989) (1989)

1988

87. Humphrey-Hawkins: the July monetary policy report
    Economic Commentary, 1988, (Aug)
88. The case for zero inflation
    Economic Commentary, 1988, (Sep) View citations (6)

1987

89. M1A - M.I.A.?
    Economic Commentary, 1987, (Jul)

1986

90. Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?
    Economic Review, 1986, (Q III), 14-19
91. Evidence on the random behavior of weekly M1 data
    Economics Letters, 1986, 22, (2-3), 263-267
92. Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1986, 18, (4), 539-44 View citations (34)
93. Monetarism and the M1 target
    Economic Commentary, 1986, (Oct)

1985

94. The M1 target and disinflation policy
    Economic Commentary, 1985, (Oct)
95. The reserve market and the information content of M1 announcements
    Economic Review, 1985, (Q I), 11-28 View citations (2)

1984

96. Reflections on money and inflation
    Economic Review, 1984, (Win), 2-6
97. The monetary targets in 1984
    Economic Commentary, 1984, (Mar)

1983

98. Velocity and monetary targets
    Economic Commentary, 1983, (Jun)

1982

99. The case for staggered-reserve accounting
    Economic Review, 1982, (Spr), 30-36

1981

100. Money and Inflation in a Small Model of the German Economy
     Empirical Economics, 1981, 6, (3), 173-85 View citations (1)

Software Items

2014

1. Code and data files for "Monetary Policy, the Tax code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2015) View citations (7) (2015)