Details about Michael Kiley

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://sites.google.com/site/kileymichaelt
Phone:	202 452 2448
Workplace:	Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Michael Kiley.

Last updated 2022-04-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pki4

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Jump to Journal Articles Chapters Software Items

Working Papers

2022

1. Anchored or Not: A Short Summary of a Bayesian Approach to the Persistence of Inflation
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
2. Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2021

3. Growth at Risk From Climate Change
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2020

4. Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
5. Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
6. Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)

2019

7. Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2000)
8. Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)
   See also Journal Article in AEA Papers and Proceedings (2019)
9. The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in Annual Review of Financial Economics (2020)
10. The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Bulletin (2002)

2018

11. Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Manchester School (2018)
12. Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
13. Unemployment Risk
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
14. What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)

2017

15. Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (60)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2017)

2016

16. Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2015

17. Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (24)
18. Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (9)
    Also in BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2015) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
19. Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2017)
20. Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System: A Summary
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
21. Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2017)
22. What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2020)

2014

23. An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2015)
24. Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Chapter (2014)
    Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)
25. Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (18)
    Also in 2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2016)
26. The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)

2013

27. Exchange rates, monetary policy statements, and uncovered interest parity: before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
28. Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in Finance Research Letters (2016)
29. The response of equity prices to movements in long-term interest rates associated with monetary policy statements: before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2014)

2012

30. The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2014)

2011

31. Financial capital and the macroeconomy: a quantitative framework
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
32. Financial capital and the macroeconomy: policy considerations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)

2010

33. Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (31)
34. How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (140)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2010) View citations (130)
    See also Chapter (2010)
35. Output gaps
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
    Also in 2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2013)

2009

36. A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (1)
37. A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)
38. Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and monetary policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
39. Investment Shocks and the Business Cycle: The View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE model
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
40. Monetary policy and the housing bubble
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (47)

2008

41. Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (33)
42. Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (17)
43. The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (8)

2007

44. Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (45)
45. Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2010)
46. Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (52)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008)

2006

47. A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (37)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2007)

2004

48. IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH INFLATION INHERENTLY UNSTABLE?
    Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (16)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2007)
49. Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States
    OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing View citations (3)

2003

50. How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002)
    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2003)

2001

51. An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2003)

2000

52. Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)

1999

53. Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (34)
54. Partial adjustment and staggered price setting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2002)

1998

55. Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (30)

1997

56. Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1997)
57. Staggered price setting and real rigidities
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (43)
58. The supply of skilled labor and skill-based technological progress
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (1999)

Journal Articles

2021

1. What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 111, (C)
   See also Working Paper (2018)

2020

2. The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
   Annual Review of Financial Economics, 2020, 12, (1), 305-326 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2019)
3. What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2020, 16, (3), 181-209 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper (2015)

2019

4. Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (3), 137-204 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
5. Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
   AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019, 109, 421-26 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper (2019)

2018

6. Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy
   Manchester School, 2018, 86, (S1), 21-49 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper (2018)

2017

7. Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system
   Journal of Banking & Finance, 2017, 81, (C), 36-64 View citations (29)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
8. Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
   Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 317-396 View citations (71)
   See also Working Paper (2017)
9. Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017, 54, (PB), 232-259 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper (2015)

2016

10. Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance Research Letters, 2016, 18, (C), 285-290 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
11. Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 21, 1-15 View citations (60)
    See also Software Item (2016)
    Working Paper (2014)

2015

12. An evaluation of the inflationary pressure associated with short- and long-term unemployment
    Economics Letters, 2015, 137, (C), 5-9 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
13. Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2015, 29, (1), 289 - 344 View citations (16)
    See also Chapter (2014)
    Working Paper (2014)

2014

14. Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 43, (C), 175-198 View citations (14)
15. The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2014, 10, (4), 69-104 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
16. The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014, 46, (5), 1057-1071 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2013

17. Output gaps
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 37, (C), 1-18 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

2011

18. Monetary policy and the global housing bubble
    (Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence)
    Economic Policy, 2011, 26, (66), 237-287 View citations (7)

2010

19. A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 720-754 View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
20. Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, (3), 679-683 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2008

21. Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2008
22. Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, 32, (8), 2512-2535 View citations (129)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2007

23. A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 101-125 View citations (86)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 101-125 (2007) View citations (7)
    Proceedings, 2005 (2005) View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
24. Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2007, 3, (2), 173-201 View citations (75)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2005

25. An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures
    Proceedings, 2005 View citations (18)

2004

26. Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective
    The Journal of Business, 2004, 77, (4), 909-936 View citations (4)

2003

27. An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, 3, (1), 1-26 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2001)
28. How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2003, 3, (1), 1-22 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
29. Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?
    Economic Inquiry, 2003, 41, (3), 392-406 View citations (8)

2002

30. Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, 34, (2), 283-98 View citations (92)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
31. The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models
    Economics Bulletin, 2002, 5, (5), 1-7 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2019)

2001

32. Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 171-215 View citations (26)

2000

33. Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (1), 28-53 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper (2019)

1999

34. The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress
    Economic Journal, 1999, 109, (458), 708-24 View citations (73)
    See also Working Paper (1997)

1998

35. Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1998, 20, (1), 153-167 View citations (1)

1997

36. Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost
    Economics Letters, 1997, 56, (2), 215-221 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (1997)

Chapters

2014

1. Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, 2014, pp 289-344 View citations (13)
   See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)
   Working Paper (2014)

2010

2. How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
   Chapter 08 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, vol. 3, pp 369-422 View citations (222)
   See also Working Paper (2010)

Software Items

2016

1. Code and data files for "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2016)