Details about Michael T Kiley

Homepage:	http://sites.google.com/site/kileymichaelt
Phone:	202 452 2448
Workplace:	Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Michael T Kiley.

Last updated 2025-02-17. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pki4

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Working Papers

2024

1. Central Banking Post Crises
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2024)
2. Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
3. Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
4. Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2023

5. A (Bayesian) Update on Inflation and Inflation Persistence
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
6. Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
7. The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)

2022

8. Anchored or Not: A Short Summary of a Bayesian Approach to the Persistence of Inflation
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
9. Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
   See also Journal Article Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2024) (2024)
10. Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)

2021

11. Growth at Risk From Climate Change
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Growth at risk from climate change, Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International (2024) View citations (2) (2024)

2020

12. Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
13. Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
14. Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)

2019

15. Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2000) View citations (85) (2000)
16. Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment, AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association (2019) View citations (85) (2019)
17. The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges, Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews (2020) View citations (13) (2020)
18. The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2002) View citations (3) (2002)

2018

19. Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy, Manchester School, University of Manchester (2018) View citations (7) (2018)
20. Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
21. Unemployment Risk
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Unemployment Risk, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2022) View citations (2) (2022)
22. What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2021) View citations (7) (2021)

2017

23. Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (75)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2017) View citations (176) (2017)

2016

24. Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2015

25. Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (38)
26. Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
    Also in BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2015) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2019) View citations (14) (2019)
27. Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2017) View citations (46) (2017)
28. Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System: A Summary
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
29. Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2017) View citations (21) (2017)
30. What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (40)
    See also Journal Article What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2020) View citations (18) (2020)

2014

31. An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article An evaluation of the inflationary pressure associated with short- and long-term unemployment, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2015) View citations (34) (2015)
32. Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press (2015) View citations (23) (2015)
    Chapter Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (13) (2014)
33. Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (18)
    Also in 2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (90) (2016)
34. The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (15)

2013

35. Exchange rates, monetary policy statements, and uncovered interest parity: before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
36. Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound, Finance Research Letters, Elsevier (2016) View citations (7) (2016)
37. The response of equity prices to movements in long-term interest rates associated with monetary policy statements: before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2014) View citations (35) (2014)

2012

38. The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2014) View citations (29) (2014)

2011

39. Financial capital and the macroeconomy: a quantitative framework
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
40. Financial capital and the macroeconomy: policy considerations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)

2010

41. Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (32)
42. How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (340)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2010) View citations (143)
    See also Chapter How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?, Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (355) (2010)
43. Output gaps
    2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2010) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Output gaps, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (26) (2013)

2009

44. A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (1)
45. A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) View citations (106) (2010)
46. Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and monetary policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
47. Investment Shocks and the Business Cycle: The View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE model
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
48. Monetary policy and the housing bubble
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (46)

2008

49. Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (34)
50. Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (17)
51. The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (9)

2007

52. Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (46)
53. Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2010) View citations (39) (2010)
54. Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (52)
    See also Journal Article Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2008) View citations (162) (2008)

2006

55. A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (37)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2007) View citations (112) (2007)

2004

56. IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH INFLATION INHERENTLY UNSTABLE?
    Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (16)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2007) View citations (90) (2007)
57. Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States
    OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing View citations (3)

2003

58. How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002)
    See also Journal Article How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter (2003) View citations (36) (2003)

2001

59. An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2003) View citations (5) (2003)

2000

60. Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (15)

1999

61. Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (39)
62. Partial adjustment and staggered price setting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2002) View citations (97) (2002)

1998

63. Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (34)

1997

64. Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost, Economics Letters, Elsevier (1997) View citations (16) (1997)
65. Staggered price setting and real rigidities
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (48)
66. The supply of skilled labor and skill-based technological progress
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (1999) View citations (86) (1999)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2024, 20, (1), 239-261
   See also Working Paper Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2022) (2022)
2. Growth at risk from climate change
   Economic Inquiry, 2024, 62, (3), 1134-1151 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Growth at Risk From Climate Change, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021) View citations (1) (2021)

2022

3. Unemployment Risk
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, 54, (5), 1407-1424 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Unemployment Risk, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018) View citations (1) (2018)

2021

4. What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 111, (C) View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018) View citations (3) (2018)

2020

5. The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
   Annual Review of Financial Economics, 2020, 12, (1), 305-326 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (2) (2019)
6. What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2020, 16, (3), 181-209 View citations (18)
   See also Working Paper What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2015) View citations (40) (2015)

2019

7. Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (3), 137-204 View citations (14)
   See also Working Paper Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2015) View citations (10) (2015)
8. Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
   AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019, 109, 421-26 View citations (85)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (28) (2019)

2018

9. Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy
   Manchester School, 2018, 86, (S1), 21-49 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018) View citations (6) (2018)

2017

10. Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2017, 81, (C), 36-64 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2015) View citations (10) (2015)
11. Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 317-396 View citations (176)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2017) View citations (75) (2017)
12. Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017, 54, (PB), 232-259 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2015) View citations (1) (2015)

2016

13. Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound
    Finance Research Letters, 2016, 18, (C), 285-290 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013) View citations (8) (2013)
14. Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 21, 1-15 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2014) View citations (18) (2014)
    Software Item Code and data files for "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model", Computer Codes (2016) (2016)

2015

15. An evaluation of the inflationary pressure associated with short- and long-term unemployment
    Economics Letters, 2015, 137, (C), 5-9 View citations (34)
    See also Working Paper An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
16. Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2015, 29, (1), 289 - 344 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination, NBER Working Papers (2014) View citations (11) (2014)
    Chapter Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination, NBER Chapters, 2014, 289-344 (2014) View citations (13) (2014)

2014

17. Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 43, (C), 175-198 View citations (21)
18. The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2014, 10, (4), 69-104 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2012) View citations (13) (2012)
19. The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014, 46, (5), 1057-1071 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper The response of equity prices to movements in long-term interest rates associated with monetary policy statements: before and after the zero lower bound, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013) View citations (5) (2013)

2013

20. Output gaps
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 37, (C), 1-18 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Output gaps, 2010 Meeting Papers (2010) (2010)

2011

21. Monetary policy and the global housing bubble
    (Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence)
    Economic Policy, 2011, 26, (66), 237-287 View citations (57)

2010

22. A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 720-754 View citations (106)
    See also Working Paper A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2009) View citations (36) (2009)
23. Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, (3), 679-683 View citations (39)
    See also Working Paper Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2007) View citations (7) (2007)

2008

24. Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2008 View citations (1)
25. Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, 32, (8), 2512-2535 View citations (162)
    See also Working Paper Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2007) View citations (52) (2007)

2007

26. A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 101-125 View citations (112)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 101-125 (2007) View citations (11)
    Proceedings, 2005 (2005) View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2006) View citations (37) (2006)
27. Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2007, 3, (2), 173-201 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH INFLATION INHERENTLY UNSTABLE?, Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings (2004) View citations (16) (2004)

2005

28. An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures
    Proceedings, 2005 View citations (21)

2004

29. Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective
    The Journal of Business, 2004, 77, (4), 909-936 View citations (4)

2003

30. An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, 3, (1), 26 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2001) View citations (1) (2001)
31. How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2003, 3, (1), 1-22 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2003) View citations (10) (2003)
32. Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?
    Economic Inquiry, 2003, 41, (3), 392-406 View citations (8)

2002

33. Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, 34, (2), 283-98 View citations (97)
    See also Working Paper Partial adjustment and staggered price setting, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1999) View citations (13) (1999)
34. The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models
    Economics Bulletin, 2002, 5, (5), 1-7 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (1) (2019)

2001

35. Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 171-215 View citations (30)

2000

36. Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (1), 28-53 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (1) (2019)

1999

37. The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress
    Economic Journal, 1999, 109, (458), 708-24 View citations (86)
    See also Working Paper The supply of skilled labor and skill-based technological progress, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1997) View citations (28) (1997)

1998

38. Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1998, 20, (1), 153-167 View citations (1)

1997

39. Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost
    Economics Letters, 1997, 56, (2), 215-221 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1997) View citations (16) (1997)

Chapters

2014

1. Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, 2014, pp 289-344 View citations (13)
   See also Journal Article Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination, University of Chicago Press (2015) View citations (23) (2015)
   Working Paper Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (11) (2014)

2010

2. How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
   Chapter 08 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, vol. 3, pp 369-422 View citations (355)
   See also Working Paper How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (340) (2010)

Software Items

2016

1. Code and data files for "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (90) (2016)