Details about Michael Kiley
Access statistics for papers by Michael Kiley.
Last updated 2022-04-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
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Working Papers
2022
- Anchored or Not: A Short Summary of a Bayesian Approach to the Persistence of Inflation
FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
- Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
2021
- Growth at Risk From Climate Change
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
2020
- Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
- Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
- Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
2019
- Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2000)
- Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)
See also Journal Article in AEA Papers and Proceedings (2019)
- The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Annual Review of Financial Economics (2020)
- The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1996) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in Economics Bulletin (2002)
2018
- Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in Manchester School (2018)
- Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
- Unemployment Risk
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
- What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
2017
- Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (60)
See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2017)
2016
- Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges
FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
2015
- Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research
FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (24)
- Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (9)
Also in BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2015) View citations (11)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
- Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2017)
- Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System: A Summary
FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
- Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2017)
- What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (36)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2020)
2014
- An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2015)
- Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
See also Chapter (2014) Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)
- Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (18)
Also in 2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2016)
- The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy
FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
2013
- Exchange rates, monetary policy statements, and uncovered interest parity: before and after the zero lower bound
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
- Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
See also Journal Article in Finance Research Letters (2016)
- The response of equity prices to movements in long-term interest rates associated with monetary policy statements: before and after the zero lower bound
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2014)
2012
- The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (13)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2014)
2011
- Financial capital and the macroeconomy: a quantitative framework
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)
- Financial capital and the macroeconomy: policy considerations
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
2010
- Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (31)
- How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (140)
Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2010) View citations (130)
See also Chapter (2010)
- Output gaps
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (8)
Also in 2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010) 
See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2013)
2009
- A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (1)
- A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (33)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)
- Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and monetary policy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (3)
- Investment Shocks and the Business Cycle: The View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE model
2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
- Monetary policy and the housing bubble
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (47)
2008
- Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (33)
- Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (17)
- The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic
2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (8)
2007
- Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (45)
- Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (7)
See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2010)
- Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (52)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008)
2006
- A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (37)
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (11)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2007)
2004
- IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH INFLATION INHERENTLY UNSTABLE?
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (16)
Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2007)
- Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States
OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing View citations (3)
2003
- How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics (2002)
See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2003)
2001
- An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2003)
2000
- Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
1999
- Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (34)
- Partial adjustment and staggered price setting
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2002)
1998
- Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (30)
1997
- Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1997)
- Staggered price setting and real rigidities
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (43)
- The supply of skilled labor and skill-based technological progress
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (28)
See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (1999)
Journal Articles
2021
- What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 111, (C) 
See also Working Paper (2018)
2020
- The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
Annual Review of Financial Economics, 2020, 12, (1), 305-326 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2019)
- What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?
International Journal of Central Banking, 2020, 16, (3), 181-209 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper (2015)
2019
- Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models
International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (3), 137-204 View citations (11)
See also Working Paper (2015)
- Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019, 109, 421-26 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper (2019)
2018
- Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy
Manchester School, 2018, 86, (S1), 21-49 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper (2018)
2017
- Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2017, 81, (C), 36-64 View citations (29)
See also Working Paper (2015)
- Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 317-396 View citations (71)
See also Working Paper (2017)
- Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017, 54, (PB), 232-259 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper (2015)
2016
- Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound
Finance Research Letters, 2016, 18, (C), 285-290 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper (2013)
- Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 21, 1-15 View citations (60)
See also Software Item (2016) Working Paper (2014)
2015
- An evaluation of the inflationary pressure associated with short- and long-term unemployment
Economics Letters, 2015, 137, (C), 5-9 View citations (26)
See also Working Paper (2014)
- Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2015, 29, (1), 289 - 344 View citations (16)
See also Chapter (2014) Working Paper (2014)
2014
- Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 43, (C), 175-198 View citations (14)
- The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
International Journal of Central Banking, 2014, 10, (4), 69-104 View citations (22)
See also Working Paper (2012)
- The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014, 46, (5), 1057-1071 View citations (29)
See also Working Paper (2013)
2013
- Output gaps
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 37, (C), 1-18 View citations (26)
See also Working Paper (2010)
2011
- Monetary policy and the global housing bubble
(Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence)
Economic Policy, 2011, 26, (66), 237-287 View citations (7)
2010
- A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 720-754 View citations (84)
See also Working Paper (2009)
- Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, (3), 679-683 View citations (25)
See also Working Paper (2007)
2008
- Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments
Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2008
- Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, 32, (8), 2512-2535 View citations (129)
See also Working Paper (2007)
2007
- A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 101-125 View citations (86)
Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 101-125 (2007) View citations (7) Proceedings, 2005 (2005) View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2006)
- Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?
International Journal of Central Banking, 2007, 3, (2), 173-201 View citations (75)
See also Working Paper (2004)
2005
- An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures
Proceedings, 2005 View citations (18)
2004
- Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective
The Journal of Business, 2004, 77, (4), 909-936 View citations (4)
2003
- An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, 3, (1), 1-26 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper (2001)
- How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2003, 3, (1), 1-22 View citations (30)
See also Working Paper (2003)
- Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?
Economic Inquiry, 2003, 41, (3), 392-406 View citations (8)
2002
- Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, 34, (2), 283-98 View citations (92)
See also Working Paper (1999)
- The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models
Economics Bulletin, 2002, 5, (5), 1-7 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2019)
2001
- Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 171-215 View citations (26)
2000
- Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (1), 28-53 View citations (82)
See also Working Paper (2019)
1999
- The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress
Economic Journal, 1999, 109, (458), 708-24 View citations (73)
See also Working Paper (1997)
1998
- Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis
Journal of Macroeconomics, 1998, 20, (1), 153-167 View citations (1)
1997
- Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost
Economics Letters, 1997, 56, (2), 215-221 View citations (13)
See also Working Paper (1997)
Chapters
2014
- Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination
A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, 2014, pp 289-344 View citations (13)
See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015) Working Paper (2014)
2010
- How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
Chapter 08 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, vol. 3, pp 369-422 View citations (222)
See also Working Paper (2010)
Software Items
2016
- Code and data files for "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model"
Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics 
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2016)
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