Details about Edward E. Leamer

This author is deceased (2025-02-25).

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Short-id: ple440

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Working Papers

2022

1. A New Way of Forecasting Recessions
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2021

2. Who Paid Los Angeles' Minimum Wage? A Side-by-Side Minimum Wage Experiment in Los Angeles County
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
3. Why Are Some Recoveries Short and Others Long?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

2019

4. Effort: The Unrecognized Contributor to US Income Inequality
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)

2011

5. Workday, Holiday and Calendar Adjustment with 21st Century Data: Monthly Aggregates from Daily Diesel Fuel Purchases
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)

2008

6. What's a Recession, Anyway?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)

2007

7. Housing IS the Business Cycle
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (471)
   See also Journal Article Housing is the business cycle, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2007) View citations (242) (2007)

2004

8. A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle
   Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings, Econometric Society View citations (2)

2001

9. The Economic Geography of the Internet Age
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (289)
   See also Journal Article The Economic Geography of the Internet Age, Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan (2001) View citations (284) (2001)
10. The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)

1998

11. Efforts and Wages: A New Look at the Inter-Industry Wage Differentials
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Effort and Wages: A New Look at the Interindustry Wage Differentials, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2000) View citations (7) (2000)

1996

12. Effort, Wages and the International Division of Labor
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Effort, Wages, and the International Division of Labor, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1999) View citations (31) (1999)
13. In Search of Stolper-Samuelson Effects on U.S. Wages
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (75)
14. What's the Use of Factor Contents?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (28)

1995

15. A Combined Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Comparative Advantage
    Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies View citations (2)
16. A Heckscher-Ohlin View of Sweden Competing in the Global Market
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
17. A Heckscher-Ohlin View of Sweden Competing in the Global Marketplace
    Working Paper Series, Research Institute of Industrial Economics View citations (3)
    See also Chapter A Heckscher-Ohlin View of Sweden Competing in the Global Marketplace, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations (2) (1997)
18. How does the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) affect Central America?
    Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank View citations (3)
19. The Heckscher-Ohlin Model in Theory and Practice
    Princeton Studies in International Economics, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University, View citations (111)

1994

20. American Regionalism and Global Free Trade
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
21. International Trade Theory: The Evidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (82)
    Also in Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan (1994) View citations (23)
    See also Chapter International trade theory: The evidence, Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier (1995) View citations (490) (1995)
22. Models of Transition in Eastern Europe with Untransferable Eastern Capital
    East European Series, Institute for Advanced Studies
23. The Empirics of Economic Growth in Previously Centrally Planned Economies
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
24. Trade, Wages and Revolving Door Ideas
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (134)

1993

25. U.S. Manufacturing and an Emerging Mexico
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article U.S. manufacturing and an emerging Mexico, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier (1993) View citations (8) (1993)

1992

26. Testing Trade Theory
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (27)
27. Wage Effects of A U.S. - Mexican Free Trade Agreement
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (46)

1991

28. Eastern Data and Western Attitudes
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
29. Heteroscedasticity Diagnostics Based on "Corrected" Standard Errors
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
    Also in Working Papers, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics (1990)

1989

30. Bayesian Elicitation Diagnostics
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Bayesian Elicitation Diagnostics, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1992) View citations (4) (1992)
31. Planning, Criticism and Revision
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Planning, Criticism, and Revision, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (1989) View citations (2) (1989)
32. THEORY AND EVIDENCE OF IMMIGRANT ENCLAVES
    Working Papers, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics
33. The Structure and Effects of Tariff and Nontariff Barriers in 1983
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (1)

1987

34. Measures of Openness
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Measures of Openness, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (122) (1988)

1986

35. Cross Section Estimation of the Effects of Trade Barriers
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (5)
36. Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1987) View citations (262) (1987)

1984

37. Empirical Tests of Alternative Models of International Growth
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    See also Chapter Empirical Tests of Alternative Models of International Growth, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (2) (1987)
38. Paths of Development in the 3 x n General Equilibrium Model
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (1)

1983

39. Global Sensitivity Results for Generalized Least Squares Estimates
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Also in UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics (1983)

1982

40. Consistent Sets of Estimates
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (3)
41. Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1983) View citations (568) (1983)
42. Optimal Aggegation of Linear Systems
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics View citations (2)

1981

43. "Folded" Estimates of Regression
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
44. The Determinants of Reading Scores: An Analysis Built on Explicit Prior Information
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
45. The International Economics of Transitional Growth: The Case of the United States
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)

1979

46. An Althernative Reporting Style for Econometric Results
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
47. Is it a Demand Curve, or is it a Supply Curve?: Partial Identification Through Inequality Constraints
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Is It a Demand Curve, or Is It a Supply Curve? Partial Identification through Inequality Constraints, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1981) View citations (94) (1981)

1978

48. Difficulties with Testing for Causation
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Difficulties with Testing for Causation, Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International (1979) View citations (37) (1979)

1977

49. Bounds for Estimates of Location
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
50. SEARCH A Linear Regression Computer Package
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
51. Valley Regression: Biased Estimation for Orthogonal Problems
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics

1906

52. Errors in Variables in Linear Systems
    UCLA Economics Working Papers, UCLA Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Errors in Variables in Linear Systems, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1987) View citations (25) (1987)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Data patterns that reliably precede US recessions
   Journal of Forecasting, 2024, 43, (7), 2522-2539

2023

2. An investigation into the probability that this is the last year of the economic expansion
   Journal of Forecasting, 2023, 42, (5), 1228-1244 View citations (3)

2019

3. Teaching the art of pulling truths from economic data: Comment on “Is precise econometrics an illusion?”
   The Journal of Economic Education, 2019, 50, (4), 362-366

2018

4. Perspectives on U.S. Fiscal Policy
   Business Economics, 2018, 53, (3), 124-133 View citations (1)

2016

5. S-values and Bayesian weighted all-subsets regressions
   European Economic Review, 2016, 81, (C), 15-31 View citations (3)
6. S-values: Conventional context-minimal measures of the sturdiness of regression coefficients
   Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 193, (1), 147-161 View citations (4)

2015

7. Discussion of Ferrero
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (S1), 295-299
8. Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (S1), 43-50 View citations (135)

2014

9. Workday, holiday and calendar adjustment: Monthly aggregates from daily diesel fuel purchases
   Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 2014, (1-2), 1-29 View citations (3)
   Also in Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 2014, (1-2), 1-29 (2014) View citations (3)

2012

10. Globalization and U.S. Wages: Modifying Classic Theory to Explain Recent Facts
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2012, 26, (2), 119-40 View citations (88)

2011

11. Deflation Dread Disorder "The CPI is Falling!"
    The Economists' Voice, 2011, 8, (1), 5 View citations (3)

2010

12. Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2010, 24, (2), 31-46 View citations (81)

2009

13. Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2009, 9, (3), 66 View citations (7)

2008

14. Please Think This Over
    The Economists' Voice, 2008, 5, (5), 5 View citations (1)

2007

15. A Flat World, a Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above? A Review of Thomas L Friedman's The World is Flat
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2007, 45, (1), 83-126 View citations (98)
16. Housing is the business cycle
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2007, 149-233 View citations (242)
    See also Working Paper Housing IS the Business Cycle, NBER Working Papers (2007) View citations (471) (2007)
17. Is a Recession Ahead? The Models Say Yes, but the Mind Says No
    The Economists' Voice, 2007, 4, (1), 5 View citations (1)

2005

18. La géographie économique à l'ère d'Internet
    Géographie, économie, société, 2005, 7, (4), 381-404

2004

19. Are the roads red? Comments on "Size Matters"
    Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), 2004, 33, (5), 555-557 View citations (2)

2001

20. The Economic Geography of the Internet Age
    Journal of International Business Studies, 2001, 32, (4), 641-665 View citations (284)
    See also Working Paper The Economic Geography of the Internet Age, NBER Working Papers (2001) View citations (289) (2001)

1999

21. Does natural resource abundance increase Latin American income inequality?
    Journal of Development Economics, 1999, 59, (1), 3-42 View citations (147)
22. Effort, Wages, and the International Division of Labor
    Journal of Political Economy, 1999, 107, (6), 1127-1162 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Effort, Wages and the International Division of Labor, NBER Working Papers (1996) View citations (6) (1996)
23. Estimating growth equations for previously centrally planned economies: Dealing with dubious data and disparate information
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999, 21, (4), 639-671 View citations (6)

1997

24. Labor Markets in Developing Countries: An Agenda for Research
    Journal of Labor Economics, 1997, 15, (3), S1-19 View citations (38)
25. Revisiting Tobin's 1950 Study of Food Expenditure
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997, 12, (5), 533-53 View citations (3)
26. Revisiting Tobin's 1950 Study of Food Expenditure: Reply
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997, 12, (5), 559-61 View citations (3)

1996

27. Wage Inequality from International Competition and Technological Change: Theory and Country Experience
    American Economic Review, 1996, 86, (2), 309-14 View citations (88)

1993

28. Factor-Supply Differences as a
    American Economic Review, 1993, 83, (2), 436-39 View citations (10)
29. Introduction: California and an emerging Mexico
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 1993, 4, (1), 1-3
30. U.S. manufacturing and an emerging Mexico
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 1993, 4, (1), 51-89 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper U.S. Manufacturing and an Emerging Mexico, NBER Working Papers (1993) View citations (6) (1993)

1992

31. Bayesian Elicitation Diagnostics
    Econometrica, 1992, 60, (4), 919-42 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Bayesian Elicitation Diagnostics, UCLA Economics Working Papers (1989) View citations (2) (1989)

1991

32. To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends: Comment
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1991, 6, (4), 371-73 View citations (4)
33. Trade policy and income distribution
    Proceedings, 1991, 129-136

1990

34. Latin America as a target of trade barriers erected by the major developed countries in 1983
    Journal of Development Economics, 1990, 32, (2), 337-368 View citations (26)

1989

35. Planning, Criticism, and Revision
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1989, 4, (S), S5-27 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Planning, Criticism and Revision, UCLA Economics Working Papers (1989) View citations (2) (1989)

1988

36. 3 Things That Bother Me
    The Economic Record, 1988, 64, (4), 331-335 View citations (3)
37. The Sensitivity of International Comparisons of Capital Stock Measures to Different "Real" Exchange Rates
    American Economic Review, 1988, 78, (2), 479-83 View citations (8)

1987

38. Errors in Variables in Linear Systems
    Econometrica, 1987, 55, (4), 893-909 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper Errors in Variables in Linear Systems, UCLA Economics Working Papers (1906) (1906)
39. Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory
    American Economic Review, 1987, 77, (5), 791-809 View citations (262)
    See also Working Paper Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory, NBER Working Papers (1986) View citations (3) (1986)
40. Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model
    Journal of Political Economy, 1987, 95, (5), 961-99 View citations (184)

1985

41. Self-Interpretation
    Economics and Philosophy, 1985, 1, (2), 295-302
42. Sensitivity Analyses Would Help
    American Economic Review, 1985, 75, (3), 308-13 View citations (333)
43. Vector autoregressions for causal inference?
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1985, 22, (1), 255-304 View citations (84)

1984

44. Consistent Sets of Estimates for Regressions with Errors in All Variables
    Econometrica, 1984, 52, (1), 163-83 View citations (157)
45. Estimation of time-of-use pricing response in the absence of experimental data: An application of the methodology of data transferability
    Journal of Econometrics, 1984, 26, (1-2), 205-227 View citations (3)

1983

46. Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics
    American Economic Review, 1983, 73, (1), 31-43 View citations (568)
    See also Working Paper Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics, UCLA Economics Working Papers (1982) View citations (22) (1982)
47. Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1983, 65, (2), 306-17 View citations (122)
48. Robust Sets of Regression Estimates
    Econometrica, 1983, 51, (2), 321-33 View citations (3)

1982

49. Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors
    Econometrica, 1982, 50, (3), 725-36 View citations (35)

1981

50. Cross-Section Tests of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem: Comment [Factor Abundance and Comparative Advantage]
    American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (5), 1040-43 View citations (12)
51. Is It a Demand Curve, or Is It a Supply Curve? Partial Identification through Inequality Constraints
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1981, 63, (3), 319-27 View citations (94)
    See also Working Paper Is it a Demand Curve, or is it a Supply Curve?: Partial Identification Through Inequality Constraints, UCLA Economics Working Papers (1979) (1979)
52. Sets of Estimates of Location
    Econometrica, 1981, 49, (1), 193-204 View citations (1)

1980

53. The Leontief Paradox, Reconsidered
    Journal of Political Economy, 1980, 88, (3), 495-503 View citations (132)
54. Welfare computations and the optimal staging of tariff reductions in models with adjustment costs
    Journal of International Economics, 1980, 10, (1), 21-36 View citations (27)

1979

55. Difficulties with Testing for Causation
    Economic Inquiry, 1979, 17, (3), 401-13 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper Difficulties with Testing for Causation, UCLA Economics Working Papers (1978) (1978)
56. Information Criteria for Choice of Regression Models: A Comment
    Econometrica, 1979, 47, (2), 507-10 View citations (2)

1978

57. Least-Squares versus Instrumental Variables Estimation in a Simple Errors in Variables Model
    Econometrica, 1978, 46, (4), 961-68 View citations (4)

1977

58. An empirical analysis of the composition of manufacturing employment in the industrialized countries
    European Economic Review, 1977, 9, (1), 1-19 View citations (1)

1975

59. A result on the sign of restricted least-squares estimates
    Journal of Econometrics, 1975, 3, (4), 387-390 View citations (5)

1974

60. The Commodity Composition of International Trade in Manufactures: An Empirical Analysis
    Oxford Economic Papers, 1974, 26, (3), 350-74 View citations (56)

1973

61. Empirically Weighted Indexes for Import Demand Functions
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1973, 55, (4), 441-50
62. Multicollinearity: A Bayesian Interpretation
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1973, 55, (3), 371-80 View citations (36)

1972

63. A Class of Informative Priors and Distributed Lag Analysis
    Econometrica, 1972, 40, (6), 1059-81 View citations (14)

Books

2012

1. The Craft of Economics: Lessons from the Heckscher-Ohlin Framework, vol 1
   MIT Press Books, The MIT Press View citations (15)

2009

2. Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories
   Springer Books, Springer View citations (25)

1994

3. Sturdy Econometrics
   Books, Edward Elgar Publishing View citations (3)

Edited books

2007

1. Handbook of Econometrics, vol 6A
   Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier View citations (132)
2. Handbook of Econometrics, vol 6B
   Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier View citations (132)

2001

3. Handbook of Econometrics, vol 5
   Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier View citations (234)

Chapters

2017

1. Inferences from stated preference surveys when some respondents do not compare costs and benefits
   Chapter 8 in Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods, 2017, pp 224-251 View citations (1)
2. Some findings from further exploration of the “composite good†approach to contingent valuation
   Chapter 7 in Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods, 2017, pp 188-223

2010

3. What Have Changes to the Global Markets for Goods and Services Done to the Viability of the Swedish Welfare State?
   A chapter in Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden, 2010, pp 285-325

2007

4. Linking the Theory with the Data: That is the Core Problem of International Economics
   Chapter 67 in Handbook of Econometrics, 2007, vol. 6A View citations (3)
5. Preface to the Handbook
   Chapter x in Handbook of Econometrics, 2007, vol. 6B
   Also in Chapter x in Handbook of Econometrics, 2007, vol. 6A (2007)

2000

6. Effort and Wages: A New Look at the Interindustry Wage Differentials
   A chapter in The Impact of International Trade on Wages, 2000, pp 37-84 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Efforts and Wages: A New Look at the Inter-Industry Wage Differentials, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) View citations (5) (1998)

1997

7. A Heckscher-Ohlin View of Sweden Competing in the Global Marketplace
   A chapter in The Welfare State in Transition: Reforming the Swedish Model, 1997, pp 399-464 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper A Heckscher-Ohlin View of Sweden Competing in the Global Marketplace, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (1995) View citations (3) (1995)

1995

8. International trade theory: The evidence
   Chapter 26 in Handbook of International Economics, 1995, vol. 3, pp 1339-1394 View citations (490)
   See also Working Paper International Trade Theory: The Evidence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1994) View citations (82) (1994)

1993

9. Measurement Errors and the Convergence Hypothesis
   Palgrave Macmillan

1988

10. Measures of Openness
    A chapter in Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, 1988, pp 145-204 View citations (122)
    See also Working Paper Measures of Openness, UCLA Department of Economics (1987) View citations (5) (1987)

1987

11. Empirical Tests of Alternative Models of International Growth
    A chapter in Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia, 1987, pp 227-270 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Empirical Tests of Alternative Models of International Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1984) View citations (2) (1984)

1983

12. Model choice and specification analysis
    Chapter 05 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1983, vol. 1, pp 285-330 View citations (35)

1972

13. Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models
    A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, 1972, pp 291-324 View citations (30)