Details about Gabriel Caldas Montes

Access statistics for papers by Gabriel Caldas Montes.

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Short-id: pmo749

Working Papers

2018

1. DETERMINANTES DOS INVESTIMENTOS DIRETOS ESTRANGEIROS NAS ECONOMIAS DESENVOLVIDAS E EM DESENVOLVIMENTO: NOVAS EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS
   Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]
2. FISCAL CREDIBILITY AND CENTRAL BANK CREDIBILITY: HOW DO WE BUILD THEM? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL
   Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] View citations (1)

2016

3. A IMPORTÂNCIA DA ADMINISTRAÇÃO DA DÍVIDA PÚBLICA PARA A CONSTRUÇÃO DA REPUTAÇÃO FISCAL E REDUÇÃO DO RISCO-PAÍS: EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS PARA O BRASIL
   Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]
4. BANK REGULATORY CAPITAL, RISK-TAKING CHANNEL AND MONETARY POLICY: EVIDENCE FROM AN INFLATION TARGETING EMERGING ECONOMY
   Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]
5. BEYOND THE MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATINGS IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS
   Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]
6. DOES CENTRAL BANK’S PERCEPTION REGARDING THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AFFECT ENTREPRENEURS’ EXPECTATIONS? ARE ENTREPRENEURS’ EXPECTATIONS IMPORTANT FOR INVESTMENT? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL
   Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]

2014

7. COMUNICAÇÃO DO BANCO CENTRAL,EXPECTATIVAS DE INFLAÇÃO E PROFECIA AUTO-REALIZÁVEL: EVIDÊNCIAS PARA OBRASIL
   Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]
8. RISK-TAKING CHANNEL, BANK LENDINGCHANNEL AND THE “PARADOX OF CREDIBILITY”: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR BRAZIL
   Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] View citations (9)

2013

9. Transmissão da Política Monetária pelos Canais de Tomada de Risco e de Crédito: uma análise considerando os seguros contratados pelos bancos e o spread de crédito no Brasil
   Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department View citations (2)

2011

10. METASDE INFLAÇÃO E ESTRUTURA A TERMO DAS TAXAS DE JUROS - UMA ANÁLISE DAINFLUÊNCIA DA CREDIBILIDADE SOBRE O SPREAD DA TAXA DE JUROS DE LONGOPRAZO NO BRASIL
    Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]

2008

11. Challenges on Inflation Targeting
    Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] View citations (4)

2007

12. POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA, INFLAÇÃO E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO: A INFLUÊNCIA DA REPUTAÇÃO DA AUTORIDADE MONETÁRIA SOBRE A ECONOMIA
    Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]
    See also Journal Article Política monetária, inflação e crescimento econômico: a influência da reputação da autoridade monetária sobre a economia, Revista Economia e Sociedade, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (2009) (2009)

Journal Articles

2023

1. Do monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations affect business confidence? Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country
   Journal of Money and Business, 2023, 3, (2), 159-183 View citations (1)
2. The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués
   Bulletin of Economic Research, 2023, 75, (4), 828-859 View citations (1)
3. Uncertainties and disagreements in expectations of professional forecasters: Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country
   Journal of Forecasting, 2023, 42, (4), 937-956 View citations (1)
4. Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil
   The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2023, 67, (C) View citations (2)

2022

5. Discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal credibility and inflation risk premium
   The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2022, 85, (C), 208-222 View citations (2)
6. Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presidential impeachment
   Review of Development Economics, 2022, 26, (4), 2356-2393
7. Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?
   The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2022, 86, (C), 18-30 View citations (2)
8. Monetary policy opacity and disagreements in expectations about variables under central bank control
   Economics Bulletin, 2022, 42, (2), 703 - 721
9. Yield curve reactions to fiscal sentiment in Brazil
   Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2022, 14, (5), 651-673

2021

10. Effects of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal communication on fiscal credibility: Empirical evidence from Brazil
    Economics Bulletin, 2021, 41, (3), 1486-1500
11. Effects of economic policy uncertainty and political uncertainty on business confidence and investment
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2021, 49, (4), 577-602 View citations (1)
12. Effects of monetary policy and credibility on financial intermediation: evidence from the Brazilian banking sector
    Empirical Economics, 2021, 60, (3), 1191-1219
13. Fiscal transparency, legal system and perception of the control on corruption: empirical evidence from panel data
    Empirical Economics, 2021, 60, (4), 2005-2037 View citations (6)
14. Forecasting sovereign risk perception of Brazilian bonds: an evaluation of machine learning prediction accuracy
    International Journal of Emerging Markets, 2021, 18, (10), 3414-3436 View citations (1)
15. Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil
    The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2021, 81, (C), 358-369 View citations (3)

2020

16. Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the fear of floating?
    Economic Modelling, 2020, 84, (C), 76-87 View citations (10)
17. Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2020, 47, (7), 1669-1688 View citations (1)
18. Effects of fiscal credibility on sovereign risk: evidence using comprehensive credit rating measures
    International Journal of Emerging Markets, 2020, 17, (3), 858-888
19. Fiscal credibility, target revisions and disagreement in expectations about fiscal results
    The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2020, 76, (C), 38-58 View citations (4)
20. Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2020, 48, (3), 660-698 View citations (1)
21. Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020, 51, (C) View citations (8)
22. The impact of violence on tourism to Rio de Janeiro
    International Journal of Social Economics, 2020, 47, (4), 425-443 View citations (1)

2019

23. Central bank transparency and sovereign risk ratings: a panel data approach
    International Economics and Economic Policy, 2019, 16, (2), 417-433 View citations (1)
24. Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil
    Journal of Economics and Business, 2019, 103, (C), 38-60 View citations (7)
25. Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?
    International Economics and Economic Policy, 2019, 16, (4), 649-678 View citations (6)
26. Effect of monetary policy credibility on the fear of floating: Evidence from Brazil
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2019, 41, (5), 981-1004 View citations (3)
27. Fiscal transparency, government effectiveness and government spending efficiency: Some international evidence based on panel data approach
    Economic Modelling, 2019, 79, (C), 211-225 View citations (32)

2018

28. Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2018, 45, (6), 1159-1174 View citations (2)
29. Deterrence effects, socio-economic development, police revenge and homicides in Rio de Janeiro
    International Journal of Social Economics, 2018, 45, (10), 1406-1423 View citations (2)
30. Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement in expectations about fiscal variables empirical evidence from Brazil
    Economic Modelling, 2018, 73, (C), 100-116 View citations (9)
31. Discretionary fiscal policy and sovereign risk
    Economics Bulletin, 2018, 38, (3), 1343-1365 View citations (3)
32. Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries
    The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2018, 70, (C), 26-37 View citations (10)
33. Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectations about inflation: evidence for Brazil
    Economics Bulletin, 2018, 38, (2), 826-843 View citations (22)

2017

34. Corruption and business confidence: a panel data analysis
    Economics Bulletin, 2017, 37, (4), 2692-2702 View citations (5)
35. Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium
    Journal of Economics and Business, 2017, 93, (C), 46-61 View citations (12)

2016

36. Compromisso fiscal, expectativas empresariais e produção industrial: o caso brasileiro
    Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, 2016, 70, (2) View citations (1)
37. Corruption: what are the effects on government effectiveness? Empirical evidence considering developed and developing countries
    Applied Economics Letters, 2016, 23, (2), 146-150 View citations (16)
38. Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations
    Applied Economics, 2016, 48, (7), 590-607 View citations (45)
39. How does capital regulation react to monetary policy? New evidence on the risk-taking channel
    Economic Modelling, 2016, 56, (C), 177-186 View citations (26)
40. Sovereign Credit Ratings in Developing Economies: New Empirical Assessment
    International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2016, 21, (4), 382-397 View citations (17)

2015

41. Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2015, 42, (6), 1142-1158 View citations (1)
42. Does central bank communication affect bank risk-taking?
    Applied Economics Letters, 2015, 22, (9), 751-758 View citations (2)

2014

43. Can inflation targeting mitigate monetary policy time-inconsistency?
    Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), 2014, 2, (2), 15-25
44. Effects of reputation and credibility on monetary policy: theory and evidence for Brazil
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2014, 41, (3), 387-404 View citations (12)
45. Monetary policy, prudential regulation and investment
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2014, 41, (6), 881-906 View citations (3)
46. Risk-taking channel, bank lending channel and the “paradox of credibility”
    Economic Modelling, 2014, 39, (C), 82-94 View citations (8)
47. Time-inconsistency problem: less common than we think
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2014, 41, (5), 708-720 View citations (2)
48. Uma Nota Sobre o Papel da Credibilidade da Política Monetária e Fiscal: Evidências para o Brasil
    Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, 2014, 68, (4) View citations (1)

2013

49. Canal de Transmissão da Política Monetária Por Meio dos Seguros Contratados Pelo Setor Bancário
    Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, 2013, 67, (3)
50. Credibility and monetary transmission channels under inflation targeting: An econometric analysis from a developing country
    Economic Modelling, 2013, 30, (C), 670-684 View citations (40)
51. Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2013, 40, (4), 469-492 View citations (16)
52. Economic policies, macroeconomic environment and entrepreneurs' expectations
    Journal of Economic Studies, 2013, 40, (3), 334-354 View citations (9)

2012

53. Brasil: ¿cómo reaccionan los mercados financieros ante los anuncios de política monetaria del banco central en un esquema de metas de inflación?
    Revista CEPAL, 2012
54. Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil
    Revista CEPAL, 2012 View citations (10)
55. Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil
    Economic Modelling, 2012, 29, (5), 1666-1678 View citations (23)

2010

56. Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting
    Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2010, 30, (1), 89-111 View citations (9)

2009

57. Decisão de preços em economias monetárias e metas de inflação: a difícil conciliação entre crescimento e estabilidade de preços
    Revista Economia e Sociedade, 2009, 38, 23
58. Política monetária, inflação e crescimento econômico: a influência da reputação da autoridade monetária sobre a economia
    Revista Economia e Sociedade, 2009, 37, 23
    See also Working Paper POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA, INFLAÇÃO E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO: A INFLUÊNCIA DA REPUTAÇÃO DA AUTORIDADE MONETÁRIA SOBRE A ECONOMIA, Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] (2007) (2007)

2008

59. Inflation targets in perspective
    Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2008, 28, (4), 648-668

2007

60. Reputação, credibilidade e transparência da autoridade monetária e o estado de expectativa (reputation, credibility and transparency of the monetary authority and the state of expectations)
    Revista Economia e Sociedade, 2007, 30, 20