Details about Alfonso Novales
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Last updated 2024-01-04. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pno7
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Working Papers
2024
- Los Retos de la Desigualdad: Medidas y Perspectivas para la Economía Internacional y el Desarrollo
(The Challenges of Inequality: Measures and Perspectives for International Economics and Development)
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
2023
- El sector público que necesitamos tras la pandemia
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- How Is the Spanish Economy Doing? Thoughts in Electoral Time
(¿Cómo está la economía española?: Reflexiones en período electoral)
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- La economía política del Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia
(The Political Economy of the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan)
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Notas sobre el Proyecto de Ley de Función Pública
Policy Papers, FEDEA View citations (1)
- The Evaluation of Public Policies in Spain: Misconceptions and Noncompliance
(La evaluación de políticas públicas en España: equívocos e incumplimientos)
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- ¿Cómo está la economía española?: Reflexiones en período electoral
Studies on the Spanish Economy, FEDEA
2022
- Desigualdad: una revisión actualizada
(Inequality: Un updated review)
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Modernización de la Administración Pública
Policy Papers, FEDEA
2021
- El Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia: un resumen anotado
Studies on the Spanish Economy, FEDEA
- La evaluación de políticas públicas en España: antecedentes, situación actual y propuestas para una reforma
Policy Papers, FEDEA
- La gestión de los fondos europeos: criterios, transparencia, riesgos y reformas
Policy Papers, FEDEA
2019
- A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models, Computational Statistics, Springer (2020) View citations (1) (2020)
- A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
- Backtesting Extreme Value Theory models of expected shortfall
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Forward-looking asset correlations in the estimation of economic capital
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico View citations (1)
- Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico View citations (3)
See also Journal Article Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets, European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier (2019) View citations (6) (2019)
- Looking through systemic credit risk: determinants, stress testing and market value
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Looking through systemic credit risk: Determinants, stress testing and market value, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
- Market risk when hedging a global credit portfolio
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Splitting credit risk into systemic, sectorial and idiosyncratic components
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Splitting Credit Risk into Systemic, Sectorial and Idiosyncratic Components, JRFM, MDPI (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
- Volatility specifications versus probability distributions in VaR forecasting
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Volatility specifications versus probability distributions in VaR forecasting, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2021) View citations (4) (2021)
2014
- A statistical test for forecast evaluation under a discrete loss function
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
Also in Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (2011)
- Macroeconomic and Financial Determinants of the Volatility of Corporate Bond Returns
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Macroeconomic and Financial Determinants of the Volatility of Corporate Bond Returns, Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. (2015) View citations (6) (2015)
- Parameter Estimation Error in Tests of Predictive Performance under Discrete Loss Functions
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
2013
- Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy in an endogenous growth economy with public consumption and capital
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy in an endogenous growth economy with public consumption and capital, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
- Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy under endogenous growth with elastic labour supply
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy under endogenous growth with elastic labor supply, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
2011
- Variance Swaps and Intertemporal Asset Pricing
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Why do variance swaps exist?
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
2009
- State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2010) View citations (4) (2010)
2005
- A factor analysis of volatility across the term structure: the Spanish case
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
2003
- Growth and Welfare: Distorting versus Non-Distorting Taxes
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
Also in Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (2001)
See also Journal Article Growth and welfare: Distorting versus non-distorting taxes, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2005) View citations (16) (2005)
- Taxing or subsidizing Factors' rents in a simple endogenous growth model with public capital
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
2002
- A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article A factor model of term structure slopes in Eurocurrency markets, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals (2002) View citations (3) (2002)
- An Error Correction Factor Model of Term Structure Slopes in International Swaps Markets
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?"
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?, Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2002) View citations (4) (2002)
- Dynamic correlations and forecasting of term structure slopes in eurocurrency market
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Is it Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces, Centro de Estudios Andaluces View citations (2)
See also Journal Article Is It Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?, Computational Economics, Springer (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
- Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: Evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2003) View citations (17) (2003)
- Risk Premia in the Term Structure of Swaps in Pesetas
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- The Forecasting Ability of Factor Models of the Term Structure of IRS Markets
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article The role of simulation methods in Macroeconomics, Spanish Economic Review, Springer (2000) (2000)
- Volatility Transmission acros the Term Structure of Swap Markets: International Evidence
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Volatility transmission across the term structure of swap markets: international evidence, Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2004) View citations (7) (2004)
2001
- Dynamic Laffer Curves
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
See also Journal Article Dynamic Laffer curves, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2002) View citations (58) (2002)
1997
- The Joint Dynamics of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates
Working Papers, Banco de España
1993
- Further evidence on forecasting international GNP growth rates using unobserved components transfer function models
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Price Volatility Under Alternative Monetary Instruments
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
- Recursive identification, estimation and forecasting of nonstationary economic time series with applications to GNP international data
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
1986
- The role of adjusment costs in interest rate determination
Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
Journal Articles
2021
- Cross-Hedging Portfolios in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence for the LATIBEX Index
Mathematics, 2021, 9, (21), 1-19
- Evaluation of market risk associated with hedging a credit derivative portfolio
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2021, 80, (C), 411-430 View citations (1)
- Volatility specifications versus probability distributions in VaR forecasting
Journal of Forecasting, 2021, 40, (2), 189-212 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper Volatility specifications versus probability distributions in VaR forecasting, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2019) (2019)
2020
- A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models
Computational Statistics, 2020, 35, (3), 1411-1448 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2019) (2019)
- Looking through systemic credit risk: Determinants, stress testing and market value
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2020, 64, (C) View citations (4)
See also Working Paper Looking through systemic credit risk: determinants, stress testing and market value, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2019) (2019)
2019
- Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets
European Journal of Operational Research, 2019, 279, (3), 1011-1023 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
- Splitting Credit Risk into Systemic, Sectorial and Idiosyncratic Components
JRFM, 2019, 12, (3), 1-33 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper Splitting credit risk into systemic, sectorial and idiosyncratic components, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2019) View citations (1) (2019)
2018
- A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates
Economic Modelling, 2018, 72, (C), 140-150 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2019) (2019)
2016
- Credit Risk Decomposition for Asset Allocation
Journal of Financial Transformation, 2016, 43, 117-123 View citations (3)
2015
- Macroeconomic and Financial Determinants of the Volatility of Corporate Bond Returns
Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), 2015, 05, (04), 1-41 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper Macroeconomic and Financial Determinants of the Volatility of Corporate Bond Returns, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2014) (2014)
2014
- Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy in an endogenous growth economy with public consumption and capital
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014, 42, (C), 104-117 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy in an endogenous growth economy with public consumption and capital, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2013) View citations (1) (2013)
- Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy under endogenous growth with elastic labor supply
Economic Modelling, 2014, 42, (C), 398-412 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy under endogenous growth with elastic labour supply, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2013) (2013)
- Variance swaps, non-normality and macroeconomic and financial risks
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2014, 54, (2), 257-270 View citations (4)
2011
- Growth, income taxes and consumption aspirations
Economics Letters, 2011, 113, (3), 221-224 View citations (2)
- The information content in a volatility index for Spain
SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2011, 2, (2), 185-216 View citations (3)
2010
- State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market
Economic Modelling, 2010, 27, (5), 1043-1053 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2009) (2009)
2009
- Liquidity and hedging effectiveness under futures mispricing: International evidence
Journal of Futures Markets, 2009, 29, (11), 1050-1066 View citations (5)
2007
- Income taxes, public investment and welfare in a growing economy
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2007, 31, (10), 3348-3369 View citations (16)
2005
- An error correction factor model of term structure slopes in international swap markets
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2005, 15, (3), 229-254 View citations (1)
- Comments on: "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination"
International Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 21, (4), 775-780 View citations (1)
- Growth and welfare: Distorting versus non-distorting taxes
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2005, 27, (3), 403-433 View citations (16)
See also Working Paper Growth and Welfare: Distorting versus Non-Distorting Taxes, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2003) (2003)
2004
- Indeterminacy under non-separability of public consumption and leisure in the utility function
Economic Modelling, 2004, 21, (3), 409-428 View citations (23)
- Is It Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?
Computational Economics, 2004, 23, (4), 343-377 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Is it Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?, Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces (2002) View citations (2) (2002)
- Volatility transmission across the term structure of swap markets: international evidence
Applied Financial Economics, 2004, 14, (14), 1045-1058 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper Volatility Transmission acros the Term Structure of Swap Markets: International Evidence, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2002) (2002)
2003
- Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: Evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2003, 27, (6), 1053-1078 View citations (17)
See also Working Paper Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2002) (2002)
2002
- A factor model of term structure slopes in Eurocurrency markets
Applied Economics Letters, 2002, 9, (9), 585-593 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2002) (2002)
- Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?
Applied Financial Economics, 2002, 12, (7), 493-504 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?", Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2002) (2002)
- Dynamic Laffer curves
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2002, 27, (2), 181-206 View citations (58)
See also Working Paper Dynamic Laffer Curves, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2001) (2001)
2001
- The role of simulation methods in Macroeconomics
Spanish Economic Review, 2000, 2, (3), 155-181
See also Working Paper The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE (2002) (2002)
2000
- Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2000, 19, (5), 713-736 View citations (30)
1997
- A GENERAL TEST FOR UNIVARIATE SEASONALITY
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1997, 18, (1), 29-48 View citations (3)
- Forecasting with periodic models A comparison with time invariant coefficient models
International Journal of Forecasting, 1997, 13, (3), 393-405 View citations (14)
1992
- Equilibrium interest-rate determination under adjustment costs
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1992, 16, (1), 1-25 View citations (3)
1990
- Empleo, capital humano y participación femenina en España
Investigaciones Economicas, 1990, 14, (3), 457-478 View citations (2)
- Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model of Interest Rates
Econometrica, 1990, 58, (1), 93-111 View citations (17)
Books
2022
- Economic Growth
Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer
Also in Springer Books, Springer (2009) View citations (1) Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer (2014) View citations (14)
Chapters
2022
- Additional Endogenous Growth Models
Springer
Also in Springer (2014) Springer (2009)
- Empirical Methods: Bayesian Estimation
Springer
- Empirical Methods: Frequentist Estimation
Springer
- Endogenous Growth Models
Springer
Also in Springer (2014) Springer (2009)
- Growth in Monetary Economies: Steady-State Analysis of Monetary Policy
Springer
Also in Springer (2009) Springer (2014)
- Introduction
Springer
- Mathematical Appendix
Springer
Also in Springer (2014) Springer (2009)
- Numerical Solution Methods
Springer
Also in Springer (2014) View citations (1) Springer (2009) View citations (5)
- Optimal Growth: Continuous Time Analysis
Springer
Also in Springer (2009) Springer (2014)
- Optimal Growth: Discrete Time Analysis
Springer
Also in Springer (2009) Springer (2014)
- The Neoclassical Growth Model Under a Constant Savings Rate
Springer
Also in Springer (2009) Springer (2014)
- Transitional Dynamics in Monetary Economies: Numerical Solutions
Springer
Also in Springer (2014) Springer (2009)
2014
- Introduction
Springer
2009
- Introduction
Springer
Software Items
2007
- Excel files and MATLAB programs for endogenous growth models
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
- Excel files and MATLAB programs for growth in monetary economies
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
- Excel files and MATLAB programs for neoclassical growth model
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
- Excel files and MATLAB programs for numerical solution methods
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
- Excel files and MATLAB programs for optimal growth
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
- Excel files for dynamics responses and simple simulations
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
1998
- Solving Non-linear Rational Expectations Models By Eigenvalue-Eigenvector Decompositions
QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles View citations (2)
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