Details about Rolf Scheufele

Access statistics for papers by Rolf Scheufele.

Last updated 2023-11-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psc357

Working Papers

2024

1. Nowcasting GDP: what are the gains from machine learning algorithms?
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank

2023

2. The economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European countries - a SVAR approach
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank

2017

3. Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2019) View citations (6) (2019)
4. Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence
   IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Should Forecasters Use Real-Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence, German Economic Review, De Gruyter (2019) View citations (3) (2019)

2016

5. Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (1)
   Also in VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2015)
   See also Journal Article Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case, Empirical Economics, Springer (2019) View citations (1) (2019)
6. Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for exports?
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (6)

2015

7. Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
   KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2017) View citations (12) (2017)
8. Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for Swiss exports
   VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (5)

2014

9. Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2015) View citations (11) (2015)

2013

10. Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (5)
    Also in Working Papers, Swiss National Bank (2012) View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment, Empirical Economics, Springer (2018) View citations (26) (2018)
11. Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article Effects of incorrect specification on the finite sample properties of full and limited information estimators in DSGE models, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2016) (2016)

2011

12. The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (6)

2010

13. A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
14. Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (9)

2009

15. Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article Is East Germany catching up? A time series perspective, Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals (2010) View citations (7) (2010)

2008

16. Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (6)
17. Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier (2010) View citations (12) (2010)

2007

18. Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)

Journal Articles

2019

1. Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case
   Empirical Economics, 2019, 56, (6), 1939-1966 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case, Working Papers (2016) View citations (1) (2016)
2. Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (2), 151-178 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland, Working Papers (2017) View citations (5) (2017)
3. PMIs: Reliable indicators for exports?
   Review of International Economics, 2019, 27, (2), 711-734 View citations (6)
4. Should Forecasters Use Real-Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence
   German Economic Review, 2019, 20, (4), e170-e200 View citations (3)
   Also in German Economic Review, 2019, 20, (4), e170-e200 (2019) View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence, IWH Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (1) (2017)

2018

5. Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment
   Empirical Economics, 2018, 54, (2), 705-745 View citations (26)
   See also Working Paper Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment, IWH Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (5) (2013)

2017

6. Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (4), 878-893 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations, KOF Working papers (2015) View citations (5) (2015)

2016

7. Effects of incorrect specification on the finite sample properties of full and limited information estimators in DSGE models
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 48, (C), 1-18
   See also Working Paper Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models, IWH Discussion Papers (2013) (2013)
8. Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques
   Applied Economics Letters, 2016, 23, (3), 162-166 View citations (1)

2015

9. Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
   Applied Economics, 2015, 47, (26), 2699-2716 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland, Working Papers (2014) View citations (5) (2014)

2012

10. The Halle Economic Projection Model
    Economic Modelling, 2012, 29, (4), 1461-1472 View citations (10)
11. The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 428-445 View citations (42)

2011

12. Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?
    OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2011, 2011, (1), 29-53 View citations (16)
13. Mittelfristprojektion des IWH: Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen – Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2011 bis 2015
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (1), 33-49 View citations (1)

2010

14. Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010, 21, (2), 145-164 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve, IWH Discussion Papers (2008) (2008)
15. Is East Germany catching up? A time series perspective
    Post-Communist Economies, 2010, 22, (2), 177-192 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective, IWH Discussion Papers (2009) (2009)
16. Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen: Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2010 bis 2014
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (1), 42-56

2009

17. Der lange Weg der Konvergenz
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (10), 400-407 View citations (4)
18. Im Fokus: Konjunkturprogramme und ihre Wirkung – Eine Simulation mit dem makroökonometrischen Modell des IWH
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 4-7 View citations (3)
19. Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Deutsche Konjunktur am Ende der Talfahrt – mit Ausnahme des Arbeitsmarktes
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (9), 360-363
20. Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Konjunkturelle Talfahrt hält vorerst an
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (4), 158-161
21. Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung und öffentliche Finanzen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 44-58
22. Weltweite Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise treibt die deutsche Wirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 11-43

2008

23. FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?
    South African Journal of Economics, 2008, 76, (3), 367-383 View citations (14)
24. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung stockt: Warten auf die „zweite Luft“
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (1), 8-34
25. Konjunktur im Sommer 2008: Preisschub und Finanzmarktkrise bremsen Aufschwung weltweit
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (7), 263-288

2007

26. Aktuelle Trends: Aktuelle Erweiterung des Bestands an Wohnbauten in Deutschland nicht von Dauer
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (10), 363-363
27. Deutsche Wirtschaft 2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf – das andere Gesicht
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (1), 7-28
28. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland ungebrochen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (8), 288-297
29. Konjunktur aktuell: Nach Wachstumsdelle Anfang 2007 deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (3), 74-82

2006

30. Deutsche Wirtschaft 2006/2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2006, 12, (1), 6-26