Details about Rolf Scheufele

Access statistics for papers by Rolf Scheufele.

Last updated 2021-01-23. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psc357

Working Papers

2017

1. Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
2. Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence
   IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
   See also Journal Article in German Economic Review (2019)

2016

3. Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (1)
   Also in VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2015)
   See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2019)
4. Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for exports?
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (6)

2015

5. Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
   KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
6. Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for Swiss exports
   VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (4)

2014

7. Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
   Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article in Applied Economics (2015)

2013

8. Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
   IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (5)
   Also in Working Papers, Swiss National Bank (2012) View citations (27)
   See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2018)
9. Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models
   IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2016)

2011

10. The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Credit and Capital Markets (2012)

2010

11. A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
12. Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (9)

2009

13. Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article in Post-Communist Economies (2010)

2008

14. Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (6)
15. Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2010)

2007

16. Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2019

1. Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case
   Empirical Economics, 2019, 56, (6), 1939-1966
   See also Working Paper (2016)
2. Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (2), 151-178 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2017)
3. PMIs: Reliable indicators for exports?
   Review of International Economics, 2019, 27, (2), 711-734 View citations (4)
4. Should Forecasters Use Real-Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence
   German Economic Review, 2019, 20, (4), e170-e200
   Also in German Economic Review, 2019, 20, (4), e170-e200 (2019) View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2017)

2018

5. Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment
   Empirical Economics, 2018, 54, (2), 705-745 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper (2013)

2017

6. Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (4), 878-893 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2015)

2016

7. Effects of incorrect specification on the finite sample properties of full and limited information estimators in DSGE models
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 48, (C), 1-18
   See also Working Paper (2013)
8. Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques
   Applied Economics Letters, 2016, 23, (3), 162-166 View citations (1)

2015

9. Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
   Applied Economics, 2015, 47, (26), 2699-2716 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper (2014)

2012

10. The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
    Credit and Capital Markets, 2012, 45, (1), 1–26 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
11. The Halle Economic Projection Model
    Economic Modelling, 2012, 29, (4), 1461-1472 View citations (9)
12. The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 428-445 View citations (39)

2011

13. Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?
    OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2011, 2011, (1), 29-53 View citations (12)
14. Mittelfristprojektion des IWH: Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen – Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2011 bis 2015
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (1), 33-49 View citations (1)

2010

15. Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010, 21, (2), 145-164 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
16. Is East Germany catching up? A time series perspective
    Post-Communist Economies, 2010, 22, (2), 177-192 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
17. Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen: Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2010 bis 2014
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (1), 42-56

2009

18. Der lange Weg der Konvergenz
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (10), 400-407 View citations (4)
19. Im Fokus: Konjunkturprogramme und ihre Wirkung – Eine Simulation mit dem makroökonometrischen Modell des IWH
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 4-7 View citations (2)
20. Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Deutsche Konjunktur am Ende der Talfahrt – mit Ausnahme des Arbeitsmarktes
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (9), 360-363
21. Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Konjunkturelle Talfahrt hält vorerst an
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (4), 158-161
22. Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung und öffentliche Finanzen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 44-58
23. Weltweite Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise treibt die deutsche Wirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 11-43

2008

24. FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?
    South African Journal of Economics, 2008, 76, (3), 367-383 View citations (12)
25. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung stockt: Warten auf die „zweite Luft“
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (1), 8-34
26. Konjunktur im Sommer 2008: Preisschub und Finanzmarktkrise bremsen Aufschwung weltweit
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (7), 263-288

2007

27. Aktuelle Trends: Aktuelle Erweiterung des Bestands an Wohnbauten in Deutschland nicht von Dauer
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (10), 363
28. Deutsche Wirtschaft 2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf – das andere Gesicht
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (1), 7-28
29. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland ungebrochen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (8), 288-297
30. Konjunktur aktuell: Nach Wachstumsdelle Anfang 2007 deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (3), 74-82

2006

31. Deutsche Wirtschaft 2006/2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2006, 12, (1), 6-26