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Details about Rolf Scheufele

E-mail:
Workplace:Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) (Swiss National Bank), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Rolf Scheufele.

Last updated 2019-06-13. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psc357


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Working Papers

2017

  1. Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
    Working Papers, Swiss National Bank Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
  2. Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads

2016

  1. Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case
    Working Papers, Swiss National Bank Downloads
    Also in Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2015) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2019)
  2. Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for exports?
    Working Papers, Swiss National Bank Downloads View citations (5)

2015

  1. Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
    KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
  2. Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for Swiss exports
    Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads View citations (4)

2014

  1. Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
    Working Papers, Swiss National Bank Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Applied Economics (2015)

2013

  1. Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Working Papers, Swiss National Bank (2012) Downloads View citations (26)

    See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2018)
  2. Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2016)

2011

  1. The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Credit and Capital Markets (2012)

2010

  1. A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads View citations (8)

2009

  1. Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Post-Communist Economies (2010)

2008

  1. Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads View citations (6)
  2. Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads
    See also Journal Article in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2010)

2007

  1. Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Downloads View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2019

  1. Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case
    Empirical Economics, 2019, 56, (6), 1939-1966 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  2. Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (2), 151-178 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2017)
  3. PMIs: Reliable indicators for exports?
    Review of International Economics, 2019, 27, (2), 711-734 Downloads

2018

  1. Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment
    Empirical Economics, 2018, 54, (2), 705-745 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2017

  1. Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (4), 878-893 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2015)

2016

  1. Effects of incorrect specification on the finite sample properties of full and limited information estimators in DSGE models
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 48, (C), 1-18 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  2. Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques
    Applied Economics Letters, 2016, 23, (3), 162-166 Downloads View citations (1)

2015

  1. Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
    Applied Economics, 2015, 47, (26), 2699-2716 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2012

  1. The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
    Credit and Capital Markets, 2012, 45, (1), 1–26 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  2. The Halle Economic Projection Model
    Economic Modelling, 2012, 29, (4), 1461-1472 Downloads View citations (9)
  3. The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 428-445 Downloads View citations (31)

2011

  1. Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?
    OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2011, 2011, (1), 29-53 Downloads View citations (12)
  2. Mittelfristprojektion des IWH: Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen – Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2011 bis 2015
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (1), 33-49 Downloads View citations (1)

2010

  1. Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010, 21, (2), 145-164 Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  2. Is East Germany catching up? A time series perspective
    Post-Communist Economies, 2010, 22, (2), 177-192 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
  3. Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen: Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2010 bis 2014
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (1), 42-56 Downloads

2009

  1. Der lange Weg der Konvergenz
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (10), 400-407 Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Im Fokus: Konjunkturprogramme und ihre Wirkung – Eine Simulation mit dem makroökonometrischen Modell des IWH
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 4-7 Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Deutsche Konjunktur am Ende der Talfahrt – mit Ausnahme des Arbeitsmarktes
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (9), 360-363 Downloads
  4. Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Konjunkturelle Talfahrt hält vorerst an
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (4), 158-161 Downloads
  5. Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung und öffentliche Finanzen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 44-58 Downloads
  6. Weltweite Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise treibt die deutsche Wirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 11-43 Downloads

2008

  1. FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?
    South African Journal of Economics, 2008, 76, (3), 367-383 Downloads View citations (11)
  2. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung stockt: Warten auf die „zweite Luft“
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (1), 8-34 Downloads
  3. Konjunktur im Sommer 2008: Preisschub und Finanzmarktkrise bremsen Aufschwung weltweit
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (7), 263-288 Downloads

2007

  1. Aktuelle Trends: Aktuelle Erweiterung des Bestands an Wohnbauten in Deutschland nicht von Dauer
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (10), 363 Downloads
  2. Deutsche Wirtschaft 2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf – das andere Gesicht
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (1), 7-28 Downloads
  3. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland ungebrochen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (8), 288-297 Downloads
  4. Konjunktur aktuell: Nach Wachstumsdelle Anfang 2007 deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (3), 74-82 Downloads

2006

  1. Deutsche Wirtschaft 2006/2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2006, 12, (1), 6-26 Downloads
 
Page updated 2019-10-17