Details about Rolf Scheufele
Access statistics for papers by Rolf Scheufele.
Last updated 2021-01-23. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: psc357
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Working Papers
2017
- Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
- Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) 
See also Journal Article in German Economic Review (2019)
2016
- Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case
Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (1)
Also in VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2015) 
See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2019)
- Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for exports?
Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (6)
2015
- Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
- Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for Swiss exports
VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (4)
2014
- Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
Working Papers, Swiss National Bank View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in Applied Economics (2015)
2013
- Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (5)
Also in Working Papers, Swiss National Bank (2012) View citations (27)
See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2018)
- Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) 
See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2016)
2011
- The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in Credit and Capital Markets (2012)
2010
- A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
- Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (9)
2009
- Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) 
See also Journal Article in Post-Communist Economies (2010)
2008
- Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (6)
- Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) 
See also Journal Article in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2010)
2007
- Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
Journal Articles
2019
- Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case
Empirical Economics, 2019, 56, (6), 1939-1966 
See also Working Paper (2016)
- Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland
International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (2), 151-178 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper (2017)
- PMIs: Reliable indicators for exports?
Review of International Economics, 2019, 27, (2), 711-734 View citations (4)
- Should Forecasters Use Real-Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence
German Economic Review, 2019, 20, (4), e170-e200 
Also in German Economic Review, 2019, 20, (4), e170-e200 (2019) View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2017)
2018
- Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment
Empirical Economics, 2018, 54, (2), 705-745 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper (2013)
2017
- Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (4), 878-893 View citations (9)
See also Working Paper (2015)
2016
- Effects of incorrect specification on the finite sample properties of full and limited information estimators in DSGE models
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 48, (C), 1-18 
See also Working Paper (2013)
- Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques
Applied Economics Letters, 2016, 23, (3), 162-166 View citations (1)
2015
- Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland
Applied Economics, 2015, 47, (26), 2699-2716 View citations (8)
See also Working Paper (2014)
2012
- The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective
Credit and Capital Markets, 2012, 45, (1), 1–26 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper (2011)
- The Halle Economic Projection Model
Economic Modelling, 2012, 29, (4), 1461-1472 View citations (9)
- The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession
International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 428-445 View citations (39)
2011
- Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2011, 2011, (1), 29-53 View citations (12)
- Mittelfristprojektion des IWH: Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen – Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2011 bis 2015
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (1), 33-49 View citations (1)
2010
- Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010, 21, (2), 145-164 View citations (11)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- Is East Germany catching up? A time series perspective
Post-Communist Economies, 2010, 22, (2), 177-192 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper (2009)
- Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Staatsfinanzen: Eine Vorausschau der Jahre 2010 bis 2014
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (1), 42-56
2009
- Der lange Weg der Konvergenz
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (10), 400-407 View citations (4)
- Im Fokus: Konjunkturprogramme und ihre Wirkung – Eine Simulation mit dem makroökonometrischen Modell des IWH
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 4-7 View citations (2)
- Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Deutsche Konjunktur am Ende der Talfahrt – mit Ausnahme des Arbeitsmarktes
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (9), 360-363
- Konjunktur aktuell: Prognose-Update des IWH: Konjunkturelle Talfahrt hält vorerst an
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (4), 158-161
- Mittelfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung und öffentliche Finanzen
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 44-58
- Weltweite Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise treibt die deutsche Wirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2009, 15, (1), 11-43
2008
- FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?
South African Journal of Economics, 2008, 76, (3), 367-383 View citations (12)
- Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung stockt: Warten auf die „zweite Luft“
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (1), 8-34
- Konjunktur im Sommer 2008: Preisschub und Finanzmarktkrise bremsen Aufschwung weltweit
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2008, 14, (7), 263-288
2007
- Aktuelle Trends: Aktuelle Erweiterung des Bestands an Wohnbauten in Deutschland nicht von Dauer
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (10), 363
- Deutsche Wirtschaft 2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf – das andere Gesicht
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (1), 7-28
- Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland ungebrochen
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (8), 288-297
- Konjunktur aktuell: Nach Wachstumsdelle Anfang 2007 deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2007, 13, (3), 74-82
2006
- Deutsche Wirtschaft 2006/2007: Aufschwung mit Januskopf
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2006, 12, (1), 6-26
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