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Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations

Daniel Kaufmann () and Rolf Scheufele ()

International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, issue 4, 878-893

Abstract: This paper investigates the information content of a large sectoral mixed-frequency business tendency survey for Switzerland relative to competing early available monthly information. Using a factor-augmented regression framework, we find that a broad set of dimensions of the survey provides additional information for explaining CPI inflation, employment growth and the output gap. However, the survey contains no additional information for GDP growth. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise suggests that the survey information is particularly useful for forecasting the medium-term CPI inflation.

Keywords: Business tendency surveys; Dynamic factor models; Mixed frequencies; Missing observations; Nowcasting; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Working Paper: Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations (2015) Downloads
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.04.005

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