The impact of changes in the working-age population on China's economic development: From the perspective of industrial structure upgrading

XiaoFei Hao (), Aotip Ratniyom () and Sivalap Sukpaiboonwat ()

International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 2025, vol. 8, issue 6, 726-739

Abstract: The study employs a panel dataset comprising 31 provinces in China over the period from 2000 to 2022 to empirically analyze the relationship between changes in the working-age population and China’s economic growth, with a particular focus on the mediating and threshold roles of industrial structure upgrading. Empirical results demonstrate that the working-age population ratio exerts a statistically significant positive effect on economic development (β = 0.183, p < 0.01). Mediation analysis reveals that industrial structure upgrading fully mediates this relationship: the effect of WA_ratio on GDP growth becomes insignificant when ISU is introduced into the model (Sobel test statistic = 3.45, p < 0.01). Moreover, the threshold regression model identifies a critical value of 0.42 for the industrial upgrading index. When ISU is below this threshold, the marginal impact of the working-age population on GDP growth is relatively modest (β = 0.112); however, when ISU exceeds the threshold, the effect strengthens substantially (β = 0.267). These findings suggest that the positive demographic impact on economic growth is conditional upon the degree of industrial advancement. Industrial structure upgrading not only channels the benefits of a large labor force more effectively but also enhances economic resilience in the face of demographic pressures. Therefore, policy recommendations include: (1) accelerating industrial upgrading through technological innovation and service-sector development; (2) enhancing human capital investment to improve labor productivity; (3) promoting differentiated labor policies at regional levels to optimize demographic resources; and (4) integrating demographic planning with long-term economic strategies to sustain high-quality growth.

Keywords: Demographic transition; Economic development; Industrial structure upgrading; Mediation effect; Threshold regression. Working-age population. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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