STRATEGIC DECISIONS FOR MANAGING RISKS IN BILATERAL TRADE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND BELARUS: AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

F. I. Arzhaev (), A. A. Aliev () and D. D. Zuenok ()

Strategic decisions and risk management, 2026

Abstract: This article evaluates the impact of macroeconomic and structural factors on changes in bilateral trade turnover between Russia and Belarus over the period 2014–2024. The study is motivated by the importance of bilateral trade and economic relations for the development of the Union State, closer industrial cooperation, and greater resilience of integration processes amid changes in the external economic environment. The study employs multiple regression and correlation analysis to identify statistically significant determinants of bilateral trade and assess the direction and magnitude of their effects. A total of 13 independent variables were initially selected, including macroeconomic, industrial, social, investment, monetary, and other indicators. The estimated three-factor regression model showed that the volume of shipped industrial products in the Republic of Belarus was not statistically significant when the other factors were controlled for. After this variable was excluded, a final two-factor model was developed, including Russia’s GDP and the share of Belarusian industrial enterprises cooperating with Russian partners. The model explains 97.5% of the variation in bilateral trade turnover, is statistically significant, and has a mean approximation error of 2.77%, indicating high estimation accuracy. The results show that a USD 1 million increase in Russia’s GDP is associated with an average increase of USD 16 thousand in trade turnover, while a 1% increase in the share of enterprises cooperating with Russian partners is associated with an increase of almost USD 706 million. Residual analysis revealed a random distribution of residuals and no pronounced systematic error. The resulting equation can be used to generate indicative forecasts of bilateral trade and support managerial decisions concerning economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus.

Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.jsdrm.ru/jour/article/viewFile/1332/1256 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:abw:journl:y:2026:id:1332

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Strategic decisions and risk management from Real Economy Publishing House
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ООО Ð˜Ð·Ð´Ð°Ñ‚ÐµÐ»ÑŒÑ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ дом Â«Ð ÐµÐ°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸ÐºÐ°Â» ().