Comportements, croyances et lois causales: l'exemple du marché à terme du brut

Catherine Bruneau and Jean-Paul Nicolai

Annals of Economics and Statistics, 1991, issue 22, 129-152

Abstract: We study the role of a future market in the emergence of a causal relation between the crude and product oil markets. The agents' representations (Producer-Refiner) are differentiated but they all ignore this causality which however is revealed by an external observer using the equilibrium prices. Causality in FEIGL's sense ("predictability according to a law") appears to depend on the position of the one realizing the causal analysis.

Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:22:p:129-152

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