Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan

Andrew Beath, Fotini Christia and Ruben Enikolopov

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2025, vol. 17, issue 3, 80-116

Abstract: We exploit a randomized controlled trial conducted between 2007 and 2011 to identify the effect of Afghanistan's largest local governance and development program on the strength of the insurgency. We find that the program reduced violence, improved economic outcomes, and increased government support in interior regions of the country, but increased violence in villages close to the Pakistani border, where foreign insurgents were more numerous. The results suggest that development programs can be effective in suppressing locally driven insurgencies, but may be counterproductive where insurgents are not reliant on the local population for support.

JEL-codes: C93 D74 F35 O15 O17 O18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1257/app.20230150

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