Land Concentration and Long-Run Development in the Frontier United States

Cory Smith

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2026, vol. 18, issue 2, 1-33

Abstract: I study the long-run economic effects of land concentration on the American frontier. Using quasi-random variation in initial land allocations from a checkerboard formula, I analyze a large database of property assessments and find that historical concentration reduced modern land values by 4.5 percent and fixed capital by 23 percent. Modern effect sizes are 23−64 percent of their historical equivalents, indicating significant rates of both persistence and convergence over the last 150 years. Using archival data on tenant contracts, I argue that the low-powered incentives of share agreements discouraged investment by large-scale owners with long-term effects.

JEL-codes: D82 G31 N41 N51 Q12 Q15 Q24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/app.20230647

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