The Likelihood of Persistently Low Global Fertility

Michael Geruso and Dean Spears

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2026, vol. 40, issue 1, 3-26

Abstract: For the world as a whole, average birth rates have been falling for decades—from about 5 in 1950 to a little above 2 today. Two-thirds of people today live in a country where the birth rate is below an average of two children per two adults, which means below the fertility level needed to sustain population sizes (without net migration). In this paper, we assess whether low fertility is likely to persist as a global phenomenon. We distinguish cohort birth rates, which matter for generation-to-generation population change, from period birth rates, which present a snapshot of birth rates at a point in time, but may offer less insight on longer-run possibilities. Where cohort birth rates have fallen low, they have not subsequently rebounded. We show that both increasing rates of lifetime childlessness and smaller family sizes among parents have contributed to falling cohort birth rates. Pronatal policies, we discuss, can have large effects on the annual fertility data without substantially changing the average number of children women have over their lifetimes. Although future birth rates remain uncertain, we conclude from the evidence that, over a long horizon, persistent low fertility is a likely future.

JEL-codes: J11 J13 J16 J18 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251463

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