EIA Storage Announcements, Analyst Storage Forecasts, and Energy Prices

Louis H. Ederington, Fang Lin, Scott C. Linn, and Lisa (Zongfei) Yang
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Scott C. Linn

The Energy Journal, 2019, vol. Volume 40, issue Number 5

Abstract: Exploring properties both of the EIA's natural gas and crude oil storage announcements and of analyst forecasts of the EIA storage figures, we find that analyst storage forecasts bring additional information to the market beyond seasonal patterns and past storage flows and that the market promptly incorporates analyst forecasts into oil and gas prices prior to the EIA announcements. Analyst's natural gas forecasts efficiently impound the available time-series information but crude oil forecasts do not. We further find that the price reaction to subsequent EIA natural gas storage announcements is contingent on the level of analyst forecast uncertainty as proxied by analyst forecast disagreement. Storage flows higher or lower than analysts had expected one week tend to be partially reversed the following week and analyst forecast dispersion regarding future forecasts increases following large forecast errors.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3404 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

Related works:
Journal Article: EIA Storage Announcements, Analyst Storage Forecasts, and Energy Prices (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-5-ederington

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams ().