Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability

Timothy Park, Tatiana Gubanova, Luanne Lohr and Cesar Escalante ()

No 19412, 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: Organic farmers, wholesalers, and retailers need reliable price forecasts to improve their decision- making practices. This paper presents a methodology and protocol to select the best-performing method from several time and frequency domain candidates. Weekly farmgate prices for organic fresh produce are used. Forecasting methods are evaluated on the basis of an aggregate accuracy measure and several out-of-sample predictive ability tests. Combining forecasts to improve on individual forecasts is investigated.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea05:19412

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19412

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