Evolving Skill Demands in Temporary Agricultural Work: Text Analysis of H-2A Job Orders

Fernando Brito Gonzalez, Gulcan Onel, Jared Gars and Conner Mullally

No 404608, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: We document how H-2A job orders describe task and skill content for U.S. seasonal agriculture from FY2020 to FY2026, using 128,599 job orders and 804,296 farm-like sentences across the three Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes that hold 96.8 percent of certified worker positions. Token-level analysis finds rising equipment and maintenance vocabulary alongside falling hand-tool vocabulary. A supervised labelling onto the 52 Occupational Information Network (O*NET) ability and task definitions finds the FY2026 level distribution agrees with O*NET’s physical and psychomotor core, while the fastest movers are cognitive and sensory abilities O*NET ranks as low-importance. Unsupervised clustering surfaces residue task clusters absent from O*NET, including mechanized orchard platforms and trellis-and-vine training. We read the disagreement as evidence that O*NET profiles for these occupations lag behind what they actually involve. Workforce training would benefit from adding mechanized platform operation, trained-canopy maintenance, and English-language instruction-following capabilities.

Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics; Labor and Human Capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404608

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404608

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