From Farms to Non-Farm and Back: Job Dynamics in Nigeria

Xufeng Liu

No 404638, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Labor markets in developing countries are marked by high informality, self-employment, and strong ties to agriculture, yet evidence on short-term job dynamics remains scarce. This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of within-year labor market transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa and examines how they interact with agricultural cycles and household welfare. Using ten rounds of panel data from the Nigeria General Household Survey (2010–2024), I construct quarterly transition rates across employment types and household non-farm enterprise (HNFE) job flows. The Nigerian labor market is highly fl uid: only 77 percent of workers remain in the same job each quarter, with farm–non-farm switches dominating job-to-job transitions. HNFEs display quarterly job creation and destruction rates around 15–16 percent, mostly reflecting household entry and e xit. Smaller HNFEs grow faster, rejecting Gibrat’s Law and suggesting binding early-stage frictions. Employment and enterprise outcomes move in sync with the agricultural cycle—post-harvest periods expand non-farm activity despite lower productivity, while shocks shift labor back to farming. Together, the findings reveal a mobile but weakly productive labor market and argue against one-size-fits-all entrepreneurship policies, underscoring the value of targeted, timely interventions aligned with seasonal agricultural rhythms.

Keywords: International; Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404638

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404638

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